Energy conversion/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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|Example=The model analysis in general shows that a high proportion of the emission reductions would come from supply side changes. Figure 3.1.2.3 shows the capacity for different supply side options in the baseline and various pathways consistent with the 2oC target. Although the share of unabated fossil-fuel use is still 80% of total primary energy under the baseline scenario (see above), this would need to be around 15-20% by 2050 in 2oC scenarios. The results show that pathways can be identified in which the remaining energy comes from bio-energy, other renewables, nuclear energy, and fossil-fuel energy combined with CCS. There is a flexibility in the choice of these options as illustrated here by the Decentralised Solutions and Global Technology pathways with very different patterns for nuclear power and renewables. In the IMAGE model, however, in nearly all scenarios the combination of bio-energy with CCS (and CCS in general) plays a critical role in reaching the 2oC target. | |||
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|H2 production Capacity in the baseline | |H2 production Capacity in the baseline | ||
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The conversion model can, obviously, be used to generate scenarios with and without climate policy_ The results in a typical baseline scenario are shown in Figure 3_1_2_2_ At the moment, coal forms by far the most important feedstock into the power system at the global scale_ In high-income regions, the contribution of coal has been challenged by natural gas_ In the emerging economies of China and India, however, coal forms by far the most input_ In the future, the baseline projects coal use to expand_ The underlying reasons are the fast growth of electricity use in the emerging economies and also the stronger increase of natural gas prices than coal prices_ At the same time also wind power and biomass-fired power plants rapidly expand their total capacity at the global scale_ | The conversion model can, obviously, be used to generate scenarios with and without climate policy_ The results in a typical baseline scenario are shown in Figure 3_1_2_2_ At the moment, coal forms by far the most important feedstock into the power system at the global scale_ In high-income regions, the contribution of coal has been challenged by natural gas_ In the emerging economies of China and India, however, coal forms by far the most input_ In the future, the baseline projects coal use to expand_ The underlying reasons are the fast growth of electricity use in the emerging economies and also the stronger increase of natural gas prices than coal prices_ At the same time also wind power and biomass-fired power plants rapidly expand their total capacity at the global scale_ | ||
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