IMAGE framework: Difference between revisions
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===Integrated environmental assessment=== | ===Integrated environmental assessment=== | ||
Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see framework | Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see IMAGE framework part: [[IMAGE framework/Organisational set-up and scientific quality|Organisational set-up and scientific quality]]). | ||
===Objective and scope of IMAGE=== | ===Objective and scope of IMAGE=== | ||
IMAGE is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. Its design relies on intermediate complexity modelling, balancing level of detail to capture key processes and behaviour, and allowing for multiple runs to explore aspects of sensitivity and uncertainty of the complex, interlinked systems (see framework | IMAGE is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. Its design relies on intermediate complexity modelling, balancing level of detail to capture key processes and behaviour, and allowing for multiple runs to explore aspects of sensitivity and uncertainty of the complex, interlinked systems (see IMAGE framework part: [[IMAGE framework/A brief history of IMAGE|A brief history of IMAGE]]). | ||
The objectives of IMAGE are as follows: | The objectives of IMAGE are as follows: | ||
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====Baseline Scenario==== | ====Baseline Scenario==== | ||
The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|framework | The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|framework components]]. | ||
====Alternative scenarios==== | ====Alternative scenarios==== | ||
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Various types of IAMs have been developed, evolving from different classes of models with a specific disciplinary focus and point of entry. These are discussed briefly in order to identify the position of IMAGE in relation to other IAM models. The common feature of all IAM models is that they all describe a combination of the Human and Earth systems to gain better understanding global environmental problems. | Various types of IAMs have been developed, evolving from different classes of models with a specific disciplinary focus and point of entry. These are discussed briefly in order to identify the position of IMAGE in relation to other IAM models. The common feature of all IAM models is that they all describe a combination of the Human and Earth systems to gain better understanding global environmental problems. | ||
IMAGE is part of the [[IAMC]], the Integrated Assessment Model Consortium. The [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/ADVANCE_wiki IAMC models] website offers an overview of a number of IAMs and their model properties. See the [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/Reference_card_-_IMAGE Reference card]] page and the [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/Special:RunQuery/Models-AttributesForm Model comparison] page. | |||
====Detail versus simplification==== | ====Detail versus simplification==== | ||
As indicated above, a key trade-off in IAMs is detail versus simplification. Sufficient detail is required to include all relevant processes in both the Human and the Earth system according to state-of-the-art knowledge. Simplicity is needed to ensure sufficient transparency in complex model systems, and to explore uncertainties. For instance, a crop growth model with data input on observed, local climate, soil layers and crop variety parameters may perform well at field scale. However, such a model is less suitable for use in an IAM that requires more generic crop growth representation operating as part of a global scale system. | As indicated above, a key trade-off in IAMs is detail versus simplification. Sufficient detail is required to include all relevant processes in both the Human and the Earth system according to state-of-the-art knowledge. Simplicity is needed to ensure sufficient transparency in complex model systems, and to explore uncertainties. For instance, a crop growth model with data input on observed, local climate, soil layers and crop variety parameters may perform well at field scale. However, such a model is less suitable for use in an IAM that requires more generic crop growth representation operating as part of a global scale system. | ||
Revision as of 15:09, 11 July 2017
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