Climate policy/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

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As shown in Figure below, all reductions result from reduced emissions from deforestation (REDD). The contributions from {{abbrTemplate|REDD}} projects (about 560 MtCO2) are expected to exceed or match the required total reduction in all greenhouse gas emissions of 470 and 570 Mt CO2eq for the 36% and 39% reduction pledge scenarios.
As shown in Figure below, all reductions result from reduced emissions from deforestation (REDD). The contributions from {{abbrTemplate|REDD}} projects (about 560 MtCO2) are expected to exceed or match the required total reduction in all greenhouse gas emissions of 470 and 570 Mt CO2eq for the 36% and 39% reduction pledge scenarios.
|Example=
|Example=The Global Pathfinder module was used to determine what the pledges for 2020 imply for global emission pathways consistent with meeting the 2 °C target ([[Van Vliet et al., 2012]]). The main findings were as follows (see also, Figure below):
* The global 2020 emission level resulting from implementation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges exceeds those of least-cost pathways that achieve a 2 °C target;
* Slightly postponing mitigation action (potential Copenhagen scenario) compared to the least-cost scenario seems technically feasible but at higher cumulative discounted mitigation costs;
* For an even longer delay (the current Copenhagen scenario), the FAIR-SiMCaP model cannot fully compensate the higher emission level in the short term;
* A delay in emission reductions limits the flexibility in the portfolio of emission reduction options. Such delayed scenarios rely more on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage ({{abbrTemplate|BECCS}}), an option with uncertain prospects for large-scale implementation.


===Evaluation of emission reductions on country level===
The policy evaluation module was used for determining the emission reductions resulting from the pledges made for 2020 ([[Den Elzen et al., 2012b]]). Here, as an example, the results for Brazil are presented (see Figure above). In 2011, Brazil provided a new, higher estimate for its business-as-usual emissions, against which its 36% to 39% reduction pledge is to be applied. The total pledge for all greenhouse gas emissions (including emissions from deforestation) lead to reductions of 20% to 24% according to the [[PBL]]/[[IIASA]] business as usual emission projections.
These reductions are substantially lower than those pledged from national BAU projections by Brazil (see Figure above, left-hand graph). This figure also shows that all reductions result from reduced emissions from deforestation. The contributions from [[REDD]] projects (about 560 MtCO2) are expected to exceed or match the required total reduction in all greenhouse gases of 470 and 570 MtCO2 eq for the unconditional minimum (low: 36%) and maximum (high: 39%) pledge scenarios.
===Contribution of pledges in global climate target===
The global pathfinder module was used to determine what effect the pledges for 2020 have on the global pathway for meeting the 2 °C target ([[Van Vliet et al., 2012]]). The main findings were:
* The global 2020 emission level resulting from the implementation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges exceeds those of least-cost pathways that achieve a 2 °C target;
* Slightly postponing mitigation action (the potential Copenhagen scenario) compared to the least-cost scenario seems technically feasible, although at higher cumulative discounted mitigation costs;
* For an even longer delay (the current Copenhagen scenario), the [[FAIR-SiMCaP model]] cannot fully compensate the higher emission level in the short term;
* A delay in emission reductions limits the flexibility in the portfolio of emission reduction options. Such delayed scenarios rely more on the use of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ([[HasAcronym::BECCS]]), an option with uncertain prospects for large-scale implementation.
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Revision as of 14:26, 15 May 2014

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Climate policy/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Components:
Related IMAGE components
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
FAIR, the climate policy model in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Climate policy. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
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