Carbon capture and storage
For carbon capture and storage (CCS), three different steps are identified in the TIMER model:
- CO2 capture and compression;
- CO2 transport;
- CO2 storage.
Carbon capture is assumed possible for power generation, half of the industrial sector and hydrogen production. In these sectors CCS technologies are defined that compete over market shares with conventional technologies (without CCS). The CCS technologies involve higher costs and a slightly lower conversion efficiency, and are therefore not chosen under default conditions. However, according to model calculations, the costs of these CCS technologies would increase far less compared to conventional technologies if a carbon price would be introduced. Carbon capture is assumed at a maximum of 95%, the remaining 5% is still influenced by the carbon price. The actual market shares of conventional and CCS-based technologies are determined for each market, using multinomial logit equations. The costs of carbon capture are based on Hendriks et al. (Hendriks et al., 2002; Hendriks et al., 2004a; Hendriks et al., 2004b).
The use of CCS increases power generation costs by about 40% to 50%, for natural-gas-fired and coal-fired power plants. Expressed in terms of costs per unit of CO2, this is roughly equivalent to between USD2005 35 and 45/t CO2. Similar cost levels are assumed for industrial sources. CO2 transport costs were estimated for each region and storage category, based on the distance between the main CO2 sources (industrial centres) and storage sites (Hendriks et al., 2002a). The estimated transport costs vary from USD2005 1 to 30/t CO2 – the majority being below USD2005 10/t CO2.
Finally, for each region, the potential for storage categories has been estimated, including:
- empty onshore oil or gas fields;
- operational onshore oil or gas fields;
- empty offshore oil or gas fields;
- operational offshore oil or gas fields;
- enhanced coal-based methane recovery;