Difference between revisions of "Drivers/Policy issues"

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The wide range of long-term populations projections is presented in the figure below. By 2100, the world population could be either about the same as today or double. The projections were made by IIASA using a population modelling approach ([[Lutz and KC, 2010]]) that links aggregate education levels to fertility and mortality rates per country. Together with migration flows, these rates determine the size of the future population. ([[Dellink et al., 2017]]; [[KC and Lutz, forthcoming]]).
 
The wide range of long-term populations projections is presented in the figure below. By 2100, the world population could be either about the same as today or double. The projections were made by IIASA using a population modelling approach ([[Lutz and KC, 2010]]) that links aggregate education levels to fertility and mortality rates per country. Together with migration flows, these rates determine the size of the future population. ([[Dellink et al., 2017]]; [[KC and Lutz, forthcoming]]).
  
Using population projections and the underlying educational attainment per age cohort, long-term economic growth models project economic development expressed as GDP per capita. For the SSPs, economic development up to 2100 has been calculated by three different teams at [[OECD]], [[IIASA]] and [[PIK]], using their own models. GDP projections from the OECD model [[ENV-Growth model|ENV-Growth]] ([[Dellink et al., forthcoming]]) differ by a factor of up to 3.7 (see the figure at the bottom, left). The differences in population and economic growth rates between countries and regions mean that the distribution of total economic assets is likely to shift, with Asia in the lead, followed later by Africa and, to a lesser extent, by Latin America (see the figure at the bottom, middle).
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Using population projections and the underlying educational attainment per age cohort, long-term economic growth models project economic development expressed as GDP per capita. For the SSPs, economic development up to 2100 has been calculated by three different teams at [[OECD]], [[IIASA]] and [[PIK]], using their own models. GDP projections from the OECD model [[ENV-Growth model|ENV-Growth]] ([[Dellink et al., 2017]]) differ by a factor of up to 3.7 (see the figure at the bottom, left). The differences in population and economic growth rates between countries and regions mean that the distribution of total economic assets is likely to shift, with Asia in the lead, followed later by Africa and, to a lesser extent, by Latin America (see the figure at the bottom, middle).
  
 
=== Models, scenario story lines and results===
 
=== Models, scenario story lines and results===

Revision as of 11:25, 1 August 2017