Difference between revisions of "Emissions/Description"
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Future emission factors are based on the following rules: | Future emission factors are based on the following rules: | ||
| − | * Emission factors can follow an exogenous scenario, which can be based on the storyline of the scenario. In some cases, exogenous emission factor scenarios are used, such as the Current Legislation Scenario ({{abbrTemplate|CLE | + | * Emission factors can follow an exogenous scenario, which can be based on the storyline of the scenario. In some cases, exogenous emission factor scenarios are used, such as the Current Legislation Scenario ({{abbrTemplate|CLE}}) developed by IIASA (for instance, Cofala et al., ([[Cofala et al., 2002|2002]]). The CLE scenario describes the policies in different regions for the 2000–2030 period. |
* Alternatively, emission factors can be derived from generic rules, one of which in IMAGE is the {{abbrTemplate|EKC}}: Environmental Kuznets Curve ([[Stern, 2003]]; [[Smith et al., 2005]]; [[Van Ruijven et al., 2008]]; [[Carson, 2010]]; [[Smith et al., 2011]]). EKC suggests that starting from low-income levels, per-capita emissions will increase with increasing per-capita income and will peak at some point and then decline. The last is driven by increasingly stringent environmental policies, and by shifts within sectors to industries with lower emissions and improved technology. Although such shifts do not necessarily lead to lower absolute emissions, average emissions per unit of energy use decline. See below, for further discussion of EKC. | * Alternatively, emission factors can be derived from generic rules, one of which in IMAGE is the {{abbrTemplate|EKC}}: Environmental Kuznets Curve ([[Stern, 2003]]; [[Smith et al., 2005]]; [[Van Ruijven et al., 2008]]; [[Carson, 2010]]; [[Smith et al., 2011]]). EKC suggests that starting from low-income levels, per-capita emissions will increase with increasing per-capita income and will peak at some point and then decline. The last is driven by increasingly stringent environmental policies, and by shifts within sectors to industries with lower emissions and improved technology. Although such shifts do not necessarily lead to lower absolute emissions, average emissions per unit of energy use decline. See below, for further discussion of EKC. | ||
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* Combinations of the methods described above for a specific period, followed by additional rules based on income levels. | * Combinations of the methods described above for a specific period, followed by additional rules based on income levels. | ||
| − | In IMAGE, EKC is used as an empirically observed trend, as it offers a coherent framework to describe overall trends in emissions in an Integrated Assessment context. However , it is accepted that many driving forces other than income influence future emissions. For instance, more densely populated regions are likely to have more stringent air quality standards. Moreover, technologies developed in high-income regions often tend to spread within a few years to developing regions. The generic equations in IMAGE can capture this by decreasing the threshold values over time. For CO2 and other greenhouse gases, such as halogenated gases for which there is no evidence of EKC behaviour , IMAGE uses an explicit description of fuel use and deforestation. | + | In IMAGE, EKC is used as an empirically observed trend, as it offers a coherent framework to describe overall trends in emissions in an Integrated Assessment context. However , it is accepted that many driving forces other than income influence future emissions. For instance, more densely populated regions are likely to have more stringent air quality standards. Moreover, technologies developed in high-income regions often tend to spread within a few years to developing regions. The generic equations in IMAGE can capture this by decreasing the threshold values over time. For CO2 and other greenhouse gases, such as halogenated gases for which there is no evidence of EKC behaviour, IMAGE uses an explicit description of fuel use and deforestation. |
The methodology for EKC scenario development applied in the energy model is based on two types of variables: income thresholds (2–3 steps); and gas- and sector-dependent reduction targets for these income levels. The income thresholds are set to historical points: the average OECD income at which air pollution control policies were introduced in these countries; and current income level in OECD countries. The model assumes that emission factors will start to decline in developing countries, when they reach the first income threshold, reflecting more efficient and cleaner technology. It also assumes that when developing countries reach the second income threshold, the emission factors will be equal to the average level in OECD regions. Beyond this income level, the model assumes further reductions, slowly converging to the minimum emission factor in OECD regions by 2030, according to projections made by IIASA under current legislation (current abatement plans). The IMAGE rules act at the level of regions, this could be seen as a limitation, but as international agreements lead countries to act as a group, this may not be an important limitation. | The methodology for EKC scenario development applied in the energy model is based on two types of variables: income thresholds (2–3 steps); and gas- and sector-dependent reduction targets for these income levels. The income thresholds are set to historical points: the average OECD income at which air pollution control policies were introduced in these countries; and current income level in OECD countries. The model assumes that emission factors will start to decline in developing countries, when they reach the first income threshold, reflecting more efficient and cleaner technology. It also assumes that when developing countries reach the second income threshold, the emission factors will be equal to the average level in OECD regions. Beyond this income level, the model assumes further reductions, slowly converging to the minimum emission factor in OECD regions by 2030, according to projections made by IIASA under current legislation (current abatement plans). The IMAGE rules act at the level of regions, this could be seen as a limitation, but as international agreements lead countries to act as a group, this may not be an important limitation. | ||
Emissions from industrial processes | Emissions from industrial processes | ||
Revision as of 09:18, 21 May 2014
Parts of Emissions/Description
Contents
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Components:and
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