Difference between revisions of "Energy conversion/Description"

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[[TIMER model|TIMER]] includes two main energy conversion modules: Electric power generation and hydrogen generation. Below, electric power generation is described in detail. In addition, the key characteristics of the hydrogen generation model, which follows a similar structure, are presented.
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{{ComponentDescriptionTemplate
  
==Electric power generation==
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|Reference=Hoogwijk, 2004; Van Vuuren, 2007; Hendriks et al., 2004b; Van Ruijven et al., 2007;
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|Description=The [[TIMER model]] includes two energy conversion submodels: the electric power generation model and the hydrogen generation model. Here, the focus is on a description of the electric power generation model (The flowdiagram on the right also shows only the electricity model). The hydrogen model follows a similar structure, and its key characteristics are briefly discussed in this Section.
  
As shown in the flowchart, two key elements of the electric power generation are the investment strategy and the operational strategy in the sector. A challenge in simulating electricity production in an aggregated model is that in reality electricity production depends on a range of complex factors, related to costs, reliance, and the time required to switch on technologies. Modelling these factors requires a high level of detail and thus {{AbbrTemplate|IAM}}s such as [[TIMER model]] concentrate on introducing a set of simplified, meta relationships ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]).  
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Electric power generation
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As shown in the flowdiagram, two key elements of the electric power generation model are the descriptions of the investment strategy and the operational strategy within the sector. A challenge of simulating electricity production in an aggregated model is that, in reality, electricity production depends on a whole range of complex factors, such as those related to costs, reliance, and the time it takes to switch on technologies. Modelling these factors requires a very high level of detail. Therefore, IAMs such as TIMER concentrate on introducing a set of simplified, meta relationships ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]).  
  
===Total demand for new capacity===
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==Total demand for new capacity en nu een helee lange koptekst die er af loop==
The electricity capacity required to meet the demand per region is based on a forecast of the maximum electricity demand plus a reserve margin of about 10% (including the capacity credit assigned to different forms of electricity generation). Maximum demand is calculated on the basis of an assumed monthly shape of the load duration curve (LDC) and the gross electricity demand. The latter comprises the net electricity demand from the end-use sectors plus electricity trade and transmission losses ({{AbbrTemplate|LDC}} accounts for characteristics such as cooling and lighting demand). The demand for new generation capacity is the difference between the required and existing capacity. Power plants are assumed to be replaced at the end of their lifetime, which varies from 30 to 50 years, depending on the technology and is currently fixed in the model.
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The required electricity capacity needed to meet the demand per region is based on a forecast of the maximum electricity demand plus a reserve margin of about 10%. The maximum demand is calculated on the basis of an assumed monthly shape of the load duration curve ([[HasAcronym::LDC]]) and the gross electricity demand. The latter comprises the net electricity demand (from the end-use sectors) plus electricity trade and transmission losses (the LDC accounts for characteristics such as cooling and lighting demand). The demand for new generation capacity equals the difference between the required and existing capacity. Here, power plants are assumed to be replaced at the end of their lifetime (depending on the technology, varying from 30 to 50 years, and currently fixed in the model).
 
 
===Decisions to invest in specific options ===
 
In the model, the decision to invest in generation technologies is based on the price of electricity (in USD/kWhe) produced per technology, using a multinomial logit equation that assigns larger market shares to the lower cost options. The specific cost of each option is broken down into several categories: investment or capital cost ({{AbbrTemplate|USD/kWe); fuel cost (USD/GJ); operational and maintenance costs (O&M); and other costs (see further). The exception is hydropower capacity, which is exogenously prescribed, because large hydropower plants often have additional functions such as water supply and flood control. In the equations, some constraints are added to account for limitations in supply, for example restrictions on biomass availability. The investment for each option is given as the total investment in new generation capacity and the share of each individual technology determined on the basis of price and preference.
 
  
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==Decisions to invest in specific options ==
 
In the following step, a decision is made to invest in different generation technologies. In the model, this is done on the basis of the price of electricity (in [[HasAcronym::USD/kWhe]]) produced per technology, using a multinomial logit equation that assigns larger market shares to the lower cost options. The specific costs of each option is broken down into a number of categories: investment or capital costs (USD/kWe), fuel costs ([[HasAcronym::USD/GJ]]), operational and maintenance costs (OM) and other costs (see further). An exception is hydropower capacity, which is exogenously prescribed, because large hydropower plants often have functions other than only electricity production (e.g. water supply and flood control). In the equations, some constraints are added to account for limitations in supply (e.g. restrictions on biomass availability). The investments needed for each option are given in the form of total investment in new generation capacity and the share of each individual technology (determined on the basis of price and preference).
 
In the following step, a decision is made to invest in different generation technologies. In the model, this is done on the basis of the price of electricity (in [[HasAcronym::USD/kWhe]]) produced per technology, using a multinomial logit equation that assigns larger market shares to the lower cost options. The specific costs of each option is broken down into a number of categories: investment or capital costs (USD/kWe), fuel costs ([[HasAcronym::USD/GJ]]), operational and maintenance costs (OM) and other costs (see further). An exception is hydropower capacity, which is exogenously prescribed, because large hydropower plants often have functions other than only electricity production (e.g. water supply and flood control). In the equations, some constraints are added to account for limitations in supply (e.g. restrictions on biomass availability). The investments needed for each option are given in the form of total investment in new generation capacity and the share of each individual technology (determined on the basis of price and preference).
  

Revision as of 16:17, 8 May 2014