Difference between revisions of "Energy demand"
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{{ComponentTemplate2 | {{ComponentTemplate2 | ||
| + | |Application=Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project; EU Resource efficiency (2011) project; ADVANCE project; | ||
| + | |IMAGEComponent=Drivers; Human development; Forest management; | ||
| + | |KeyReference=Daioglou et al., 2012; Girod et al., 2012; Van Ruijven et al., 2012; | ||
| + | |InputVar=GDP per capita; Sector value added; Private consumption; Population; Energy intensity parameters; Energy efficiency technology; Primary energy price; Electricity price; Lifestyle parameters; Taxes and other additional costs; Preferences; Secondary energy price | ||
| + | |Parameter=Exogenously set market shares; | ||
| + | |OutputVar=Demand for electricity, heat and hydrogen; Demand traditional biomass; People dependent on solid fuel; Energy and industry activity level; Demand for fossil fuels and bioenergy; | ||
| + | |Description=Global energy use has increased rapidly since the industrial revolution. For a historical perspective, most increases have occurred in high-income regions but more recently, the largest increase is in emerging economies. With the aspirations for income growth in medium- and low-income countries, energy demand is to be expected to grow in the coming decades, with major implications for sustainability. | ||
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| + | <h3>Energy demand sectors and processes</h3> | ||
| + | In the TIMER energy demand module, final energy demand is simulated as a function of changes in population, economic activity and energy intensity (see flowchart). Five economic sectors are considered: industry; transport; residential; public and private services; and other sectors mainly agriculture. In each sector, final energy use is driven by the demand for energy services, such as motor drive, mass displacement, chemical conversions, lighting, heating and cooling. Energy demand is considered as a function of three groups of parameters and processes: | ||
| + | *activity data, for example on population and income, and more explicit activity indicators, such as steel production; | ||
| + | *long-term trends that determine the intensity of use, for example, economic structural change ({{abbrTemplate|SC}}), autonomous energy efficiency improvement ({{abbrTemplate|AEEI}}) and price-induced energy efficiency improvement ({{abbrTemplate|PIEEI}}); | ||
| + | *price-based fuel substitution ( the choice of energy carrier on the basis of its relative costs). | ||
| + | These factors are implemented in different ways in the various sectors. In some sectors, a detailed end-use service-oriented modelling approach is used while in other sectors, the description is more generic and aggregate. Energy prices link the demand module with other parts of the energy model, as they respond dynamically to changes in demand, supply and conversion. | ||
|ComponentCode=ED | |ComponentCode=ED | ||
| − | | | + | |AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand |
| − | |FrameworkElementType= | + | |FrameworkElementType=pressure component |
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Revision as of 08:04, 1 August 2017
Parts of Energy demand
More detailed (Expert) descriptions:
Contents
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| Related IMAGE components |
| Projects/Applications |
| Key publications |
Key policy issues
- How will energy demand evolve particularly in emerging and medium- and low-income economies?
- What is the mix of end-use energy carriers to meet future energy demand?
- How can energy efficiency contribute to reducing the growth rate of energy demand and mitigate pressures on the global environment?
