Energy demand: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentTemplate2
{{ComponentTemplate2
|Status=Publishable
|ComponentCode=ED
|ComponentCode=ED
|MainComponent=Energy supply and demand
|MainComponent=Energy supply and demand
|FrameworkElementType=model component
|Status=Publishable
|IMAGEComponent=Energy supply and demand; Energy conversion; Energy supply;
|IMAGEComponent=Energy supply and demand; Energy conversion; Energy supply;
|KeyReference=Daioglou et al., 2012; Girod et al., 2012; Van Ruijven et al., 2012;
|KeyReference=Daioglou et al., 2012; Girod et al., 2012; Van Ruijven et al., 2012;
|InputVar=GDP per capita; Value added; Private consumption; Population per Region; Energy intensity parameters; Energy efficiency technology; Exogenous market shares; Primary energy price; Electricity price; Lifestyle parameters;
|InputVar=GDP per capita; Value added; Private consumption; Population per Region; Energy intensity parameters; Energy efficiency technology; Exogenous market shares; Primary energy price; Electricity price; Lifestyle parameters;
|OutputVar=Demand for primary energy; Demand for electricity and hydrogen; Demand for traditional biomass; People dependent on solid fuel;
|Parameter=Taxes and other additional costs; Preferences;
|Parameter=Taxes and other additional costs; Preferences;
|OutputVar=Demand for primary energy; Demand for electricity and hydrogen; Demand for traditional biomass; People dependent on solid fuel;
|FrameworkElementType=model component
|Description=Global final energy demand has increased rapidly since the industrial revolution. While in the past most of the increase occurred in industrialised regions, currently the largest growth occurs in emerging economies and developing regions. Given the legitimate aspiration of income growth in the medium- and low-income countries, one can expect also in the coming decades a high rate of growth in energy demand with important implications for sustainability. Key policy questions are:
How will future energy demand evolve in the future, in particular in current medium- and low-income countries?
* Which end-use energy carriers will be used to satisfy energy demand?
* Which role can energy efficiency play in reducing the growth rate in energy demand/use and thus mitigate the pressures on the global environmental?
===The TIMER energy demand model===
In the TIMER energy demand model, final energy demand is simulated as a function of changes in population, in economic activity and in energy intensity (see [[Media:EnergyDemandModel.png|flow diagram]]). The model considers five sectors:
# industry,
# transport,
# residential,
# service,
# other (mostly agriculture).
Within each of these sectors, energy use is driven by the demand for energy services such as motor drive, mass displacement, chemical conversions,  lighting, heating and cooling. We simplify and consider the demand for energy to be a function of 3 groups of parameters and processes:
# activity data, i.e. population, income and more explicit, bottom-up, activity indicators such as steel productions;
# processes that determine the intensity of use, such as structural change ([[hasAcronym::SC]]), autonomous energy efficiency improvement ([[hasAcronym::AEEI]]) and price-induced energy efficiency improvement ([[hasAcronym::PIEEI]]) and, finally
# price-based fuel substitution i.e. the choice  fuels on the basis of their relative costs. The ways in which these factors are implemented differs for the different sectors. In some sectors, a detailed end-use service oriented modeling approach has been implemented. In other sections, the description is more generic and aggregate.
|Flowchart=EnergyDemandModel.png
|Flowchart=EnergyDemandModel.png
|CaptionText=Flow diagram of the TIMER energy demand model
|CaptionText=Flow diagram of the TIMER energy demand model
|AltText=Flow diagram of the TIMER energy demand model
|AltText=Flow diagram of the TIMER energy demand model
}}
}}

Revision as of 10:48, 12 November 2013

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy demand

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Key publications
TIMER model, energy demand module
Some sectors are represented in a generic way as shown here, the sectors transport, residential and heavy industry are modelled in specific modules.

Key policy issues

  • How will energy demand evolve particularly in emerging and medium- and low-income economies?
  • What is the mix of end-use energy carriers to meet future energy demand?
  • How can energy efficiency contribute to reducing the growth rate of energy demand and mitigate pressures on the global environment?

Introduction

"model component" is not in the list (driver component, pressure component, interaction component, state component, impact component, response component) of allowed values for the "FrameworkElementType" property.

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