Energy demand

Version Overviews

IMAGE framework version overview TIMER model version overview

Component is implemented in:

TIMER model (version 3.0.1) Aggregated component: Energy supply and demand Components: Emissions Energy conversion Energy demand Energy supply

Related IMAGE components

Drivers Forest management Human development

Projects/Applications

ADVANCE project EU Resource efficiency (2011) project Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project

Key publications

Daioglou et al., 2012 Girod et al., 2012 Van Ruijven et al., 2012

Some sectors are represented in a generic way as shown here, the sectors transport, residential and heavy industry are modelled in specific modules.

Key policy issues

• How will energy demand evolve particularly in emerging and medium- and low-income economies?
• What is the mix of end-use energy carriers to meet future energy demand?
• How can energy efficiency contribute to reducing the growth rate of energy demand and mitigate pressures on the global environment?

Introduction

Global final energy use has increased rapidly since the industrial revolution. Although, for a historical perspective, most increases have occurred in currently high-income regions, more recently the largest increase occurred in emerging economies. Given the aspirations for income growth in medium- and low-income countries, a continued high rate of growth in energy demand is to be expected in the coming decades, with important implications for sustainability.

Energy demand sectors and processes

In the TIMER energy demand model, final energy demand is simulated as a function of changes in population, economic activity and energy intensity (see the flowchart on the left). The model considers five basic sectors:

1. industry;
2. transport;
3. residential;
4. services (both public and private;
5. other (mostly agriculture).

Within each of these sectors, final energy use is driven by the demand for energy services, such as motor drive, mass displacement, chemical conversions, lighting, heating and cooling. Here, the demand for energy is considered a function of three groups of parameters and processes:

1. activity data (e.g. on population and income, and more explicit, activity indicators such as steel production);
2. long-term trends that determine the intensity of use (e.g. economic structural change (SC), autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) and price-induced energy efficiency improvement (PIEEI));
3. price-based fuel substitution (i.e. the choice of energy carrier on the basis of its relative costs).

The ways in which these factors are implemented varies across the different sectors. For some sectors, a detailed end-use service-oriented modelling approach was implemented. For other sectors, the description is more generic and aggregate. It should be noted that energy prices link the demand modules with other parts of the energy model, as they respond dynamically to changes in demand, supply and conversion.

Input/Output Table

Input Energy demand component

IMAGE model drivers and variables	Description	Source
Energy efficiency technology	Model assumptions determining future development of energy efficiency.	Drivers
Energy intensity parameters	Set of parameters determining the energy use per unit of economic activity (in absence of technical energy efficiency improvements).	Drivers
GDP per capita	Gross Domestic Product per capita, measured as the market value of all goods and services produced in a region in a year, and is used in the IMAGE framework as a generic indicator of economic activity.	Drivers
Lifestyle parameters	Lifestyle parameters influence the relationship between economic activities and demand for energy.	Drivers
Population	Number of people per region.	Drivers
Preferences	Non-price factors determining market shares, such as preferences, environmental policies, infrastructure and strategic considerations, used for model calibration.	Drivers
Private consumption	Private consumption reflects expenditure on private household consumption. It is used in IMAGE as a driver of energy.	Drivers
Sector value added	Value Added for economic sectors: Industry (IVA), Services (SVA) and Agriculture (AVA). These variables are used in IMAGE to indicate economic activity.	Drivers
Taxes and other additional costs	Taxes on energy use, and other additional costs	Drivers
Electricity price	The price of electricity.	Energy conversion
Primary energy price	The price of primary energy carriers based on production costs.	Energy supply
Secondary energy price	The secondary energy price of each energy carrier at the end-use level (coal, oil, gas, bio-energy, electricity, hydrogen) is calculated based on (1) the primary energy price, (2) energy taxes and subsidies, (3) the costs of energy conversion throughout the energy supply chain and (4) a correction factor.	Energy conversion

External datasets	Description	Source
Exogenously set market shares	Market shares of traditional biomass and secondary heat, for all demand sectors except the residential sector, exogenous scenario parameter.	IEA

Output Energy demand component

IMAGE model variables	Description	Use
People dependent on solid fuel	Proportion of population using traditional biomass and coal for cooking and heating.	Human development
Energy and industry activity level	Activity levels in the energy and industrial sector, per process and energy carrier, for example, the combustion of petrol for transport or the production of crude oil.	Emissions
Demand for electricity, heat and hydrogen	The demand for production of electricity, heat and hydrogen.	Energy conversion
Demand traditional biomass	Regional demand for traditional bioenergy.	Forest management
Demand for fossil fuels and bioenergy	The demand for the production of fossil fuels and bioenergy.	Final output

"model component" is not in the list (driver component, pressure component, state component, impact component, response component, interaction component) of allowed values for the "FrameworkElementType" property.