Difference between revisions of "Energy demand/Description"

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{{ComponentDescriptionTemplate
 
{{ComponentDescriptionTemplate
|Reference=De Vries et al., 2001; Richels et al., 2004; Van Ruijven et al., 2013; Van Ruijven et al., 2011; Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009; Daioglou et al., 2014;
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|Reference=De Vries et al., 2001; Richels et al., 2004; Van Ruijven et al., 2016; Van Ruijven et al., 2011; Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009; Daioglou et al., 2014; Plotkin and Singh 2009;
 
|Description=The energy demand module has aggregated formulations for some sectors and more detailed formulations for other sectors. In the description that follows, the generic model is presented which is used for the service sector, part of the industry sector (light) and in the category other sectors. Next, the more technology detailed sectors of residential energy use, heavy industry and transport are discussed in relation to the elements of the generic model.
 
|Description=The energy demand module has aggregated formulations for some sectors and more detailed formulations for other sectors. In the description that follows, the generic model is presented which is used for the service sector, part of the industry sector (light) and in the category other sectors. Next, the more technology detailed sectors of residential energy use, heavy industry and transport are discussed in relation to the elements of the generic model.
  
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===Heavy industry===
 
===Heavy industry===
The heavy industry submodule was include for the steel and cement sectors ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2013]]). These two sectors represented about 8% of global energy use and 13% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. The generic structure of the energy demand module was adapted as follows:
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The heavy industry submodule was include for the steel and cement sectors ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2016]]). These two sectors represented about 8% of global energy use and 13% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. The generic structure of the energy demand module was adapted as follows:
 
*Activity is described in terms of production of tonnes cement and steel. The regional demand for these commodities is determined by a relationship similar to the formulation of the structural change discussed above. Both cement and steel can be traded but this is less important for cement. Historically, trade patterns have been prescribed but future production is assumed to shift slowly to producers with the lowest costs.  
 
*Activity is described in terms of production of tonnes cement and steel. The regional demand for these commodities is determined by a relationship similar to the formulation of the structural change discussed above. Both cement and steel can be traded but this is less important for cement. Historically, trade patterns have been prescribed but future production is assumed to shift slowly to producers with the lowest costs.  
 
*The demand after trade can be met from production that uses a mix of technologies. Each technology is characterised by costs and energy use per unit of production, both of which decline slowly over time. The actual mix of technologies used to produce steel and cement in the model is derived from a multinominal logit equation, and results in a larger market share for the technologies with the lowest costs. The autonomous improvement of these technologies leads to an autonomous increase in energy efficiency. The selection of technologies represents the price-induced improvement in energy efficiency. Fuel substitution is partly determined on the basis of price, but also depends on the type of technology because some technologies can only use specific energy carriers (e.g., electricity for electric arc furnaces).  
 
*The demand after trade can be met from production that uses a mix of technologies. Each technology is characterised by costs and energy use per unit of production, both of which decline slowly over time. The actual mix of technologies used to produce steel and cement in the model is derived from a multinominal logit equation, and results in a larger market share for the technologies with the lowest costs. The autonomous improvement of these technologies leads to an autonomous increase in energy efficiency. The selection of technologies represents the price-induced improvement in energy efficiency. Fuel substitution is partly determined on the basis of price, but also depends on the type of technology because some technologies can only use specific energy carriers (e.g., electricity for electric arc furnaces).  
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The efficiency changes in both passenger and freight transport represent the autonomous increase in energy efficiency, and the price-induced improvements in energy efficiency improvement parameters. These changes are described by substitution processes in explicit technologies, such as vehicles with different energy efficiencies, costs and fuel type characteristics compete on the basis of preferences and total passenger-kilometre costs, using a multinomial logit equation. The efficiency of the transport fleet is determined by a weighted average of the full fleet (a vintage model, giving an explicit description of the efficiency in all single years). As each type of vehicle is assumed to use only one fuel type, this process also describes the fuel selection.
 
The efficiency changes in both passenger and freight transport represent the autonomous increase in energy efficiency, and the price-induced improvements in energy efficiency improvement parameters. These changes are described by substitution processes in explicit technologies, such as vehicles with different energy efficiencies, costs and fuel type characteristics compete on the basis of preferences and total passenger-kilometre costs, using a multinomial logit equation. The efficiency of the transport fleet is determined by a weighted average of the full fleet (a vintage model, giving an explicit description of the efficiency in all single years). As each type of vehicle is assumed to use only one fuel type, this process also describes the fuel selection.
  
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Since Girod et. al ([[Girod et al., 2012|2012]]) the LDV projected vehicle costs and efficiency have been revised to incorporate the most recent projections of LDV vehicle technology development. The vehicle characteristics are based on the in depth study performed by the Argonne National Laboratory ([[Plotkin and Singh 2009|2009]]).
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Since Girod et. al ([[Girod et al., 2012|2012]]) the LDV projected vehicle costs and efficiency have been revised to incorporate more recent projections of LDV vehicle technology development. The vehicle characteristics are based on the in depth study performed by the Argonne National Laboratory ([[Plotkin and Singh 2009|2009]]).
 
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Revision as of 10:22, 8 November 2016

TIMER model, energy demand module
Some sectors are represented in a generic way as shown here, the sectors transport, residential and heavy industry are modelled in specific modules.

Model description of Energy demand