Difference between revisions of "Energy supply"

From IMAGE
Jump to: navigation, search
(27 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
 
{{ComponentTemplate2
 
{{ComponentTemplate2
|Application=Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project;
+
|Application=Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project; ADVANCE project;
|IMAGEComponent=Scenario drivers; Land cover and use; Crop and grass; Emissions; Climate policy; Atmospheric composition and climate; Energy demand; Energy conversion; Energy supply and demand;
+
|IMAGEComponent=Drivers; Land cover and land use; Crops and grass; Climate policy; Atmospheric composition and climate;
 
|KeyReference=De Vries et al., 2007; Van Vuuren et al., 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2009;
 
|KeyReference=De Vries et al., 2007; Van Vuuren et al., 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2009;
|InputVar=Technology development; Energy resources; Trade restrictions; Demand for primary energy; Land for bioenergy; Potential bioenergy yield - grid;  
+
|InputVar=Technology development of energy supply; Energy resources; Trade restriction; Demand for primary energy; Potential bioenergy yield - grid; Land supply for bioenergy - grid; Learning rate;
|OutputVar=Primary energy price; Carbon storage cost; Bioenergy crops production; Energy security indicators; Total primary energy supply; Marginal abatement cost;
+
|Parameter=Initial production costs;
|Parameter=Initial production costs of energy supply technologies
+
|OutputVar=Primary energy price; Carbon storage price; Energy security indicators; Total primary energy supply; Marginal abatement cost; Energy and industry activity level; Bioenergy production;
|Description=The supply of different energy resources obviously forms a key component of the energy system. On the one hand, supply is constrained on an annual (for renewables) or cumulative (for fossil and nuclear) basis. In addition, resources are unevenly spread across world regions and often poorly matched with regional energy requirements. It relates directly to the notion of energy security, but also determines to a large extent the many environmental impacts of the energy system. The IMAGE energy model [[TIMER model|TIMER]] concentrates on long-term dynamics, not on short term market conditions. For all primary energy carriers, costs are based in the long run on the interplay between resource depletion (upward pressure on prices) and technology development (downward pressure on prices). In the model, technology development is introduced for most fuels and renewable options as learning curves: costs decrease endogenously as a function of cumulative capacity in place in some cases exogenous technology change assumptions are made. Depletion is a function of either cumulative production, as for fossil fuel resources and nuclear feedstocks, or of annual production as for renewables.
+
|Description=A key factor in future energy supply is the availability (and depletion) of various resources. One aspect is that energy resources are unevenly spread across world regions and often, poorly matched with regional energy demand. This is directly related to energy security. In representation of energy supply, the IMAGE energy model, describes long-term dynamics based on the interplay between resource depletion (upward pressure on prices) and technology development (downward pressure on prices). In the model, technology development is introduced in the form of learning curves for most fuels and renewable options. Costs decrease endogenously as a function of the cumulative energy capacity, and in some cases, assumptions are made about exogenous technology change.
  
 +
Depletion is a function of either cumulative production or annual production. For example, for fossil-fuel resources and nuclear feedstock, low-cost resources are slowly being depleted, and thus higher cost resources need to be used. In annual production, for example, of renewables, attractive production sites are used first. Higher annual production levels require use of less attractive sites with less wind or lower yields.
  
==Links to other parts of the model==
+
It is assumed that all demand is always met. Because regions are usually unable to meet all of their own demand, energy carriers, such as coal, oil and gas, are widely traded. The impact of depletion and technology development lead to changes in primary fuel prices, which influence investment decisions in the end-use and energy-conversion modules Linkages to other parts of IMAGE framework include available land for bioenergy production, emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (partly related to supply), and the use of land for bioenergy production (land use for other energy forms are not taken into account). Several key assumptions determine the long-term behaviour of the various energy supply submodules and are mostly related to technology development and resource base.
The supply of energy is assumed to be a function of total demand in the sense that all demand is always met. Because regions can usually not supply all demand, energy carriers such as coal, oil and gas are widely traded. The supply model influences developments in the demand and conversion models via prices: primary fuel prices influence investment decisions in end-use and energy conversion. Linkages to other parts of IMAGE are the available land for bio-energy production and the emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants (partly related to supply) and the use of land for bio-energy production (no account is made for land use for other energy forms). Several key assumptions determine the long-term behavior of the various energy supply submodels. There are mostly related to technology development and the resource base. The various links are indicated in the table below.
 
 
|ComponentCode=ES
 
|ComponentCode=ES
 
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
 
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
 
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
 
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
 
}}
 
}}

Revision as of 07:08, 1 August 2017

TIMER model, energy supply module
Flowchart Energy supply. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Key policy issues

  • How can energy resources be exploited to meet future primary energy demand?
  • How can energy supply and demand be balanced between world regions, and how will this effect security of supply?
  • How rapidly can the transition to more sustainable energy supply be made?

Introduction