Energy supply and demand: Difference between revisions

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{{AggregatedComponentTemplate
{{AggregatedComponentTemplate
|ComponentCode=ESD
|ComponentCode=ESD
|IMAGEComponent=Energy demand; Energy supply; Energy conversion;
|Application=ADVANCE project;
|ExternalModel=POLES model
|Model-Database=POLES model; GCAM model
|KeyReference=Van Vuuren, 2007; De Vries et al., 2001;
|KeyReference=Van Vuuren, 2007; De Vries et al., 2001;
|Reference=De Vries et al., 2001; a Van Vuuren, 2007; Criqui et al., 2003; Thomson et al., 2011;  
|Reference=Criqui et al., 2003; Thomson et al., 2011;
|InputVar=GDP per capita; Sector value added; Private consumption; Population; Technology development of energy conversion; Technology development of energy supply; Lifestyle parameters; Carbon price; Energy resources; Land supply for bioenergy - grid;
|InputVar=GDP per capita; Sector value added; Private consumption; Population; Technology development of energy conversion; Technology development of energy supply; Lifestyle parameters; Carbon price; Energy resources; Land supply for bioenergy - grid;
|Parameter=Conversion assumptions; Taxes and other additional costs;
|Parameter=Conversion assumptions; Taxes and other additional costs;
|OutputVar=Bioenergy production; Energy demand and production
|OutputVar=Bioenergy production; Energy demand and production
|Description={{DisplayFigureTemplate|flowchart ESD}}
|Description=Energy consumption and production constitutes a central component in discussions on sustainable development. Without the use of energy most human activities are impossible. Hence, securing a reliable and affordable supply of fit-for-purpose energy is an important element of countries' economic and energy policies. Three-quarters of the world's energy supply is fossil fuel. However, over time, depletion of fossil fuel resources is expected to lead to rising prices at least for oil, and easily accessible resources will be concentrated in a decreasing number of countries. Energy consumption and production is also important for environmental reasons –fuel combustion is the single most important source of local and regional air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Energy consumption and production constitutes a central component in discussions on sustainable development. Without the use of energy most human activities are impossible. Hence, securing a reliable and affordable supply of fit-for-purpose energy is an important element of countries' economic and energy policies. Three-quarters of the world's energy supply is fossil fuel. However, over time, depletion of fossil fuel resources is expected to lead to rising prices at least for oil, and easily accessible resources will be concentrated in a decreasing number of countries. Energy consumption and production is also important for environmental reasons –fuel combustion is the single most important source of local and regional air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.


The future of the global energy system is highly uncertain and depends on factors such as technological innovations and breakthroughs, socio-economic developments, resource availability and societal choices. Exploring different scenarios for developments around the use and supply of energy provides information for decision-makers to base strategic policy decisions.
The future of the global energy system is highly uncertain and depends on factors such as technological innovations and breakthroughs, socio-economic developments, resource availability and societal choices. Exploring different scenarios for developments around the use and supply of energy provides information for decision-makers to base strategic policy decisions.
{{InputOutputParameterTemplate}}
==The energy supply and demand model (TIMER)==
The IMage Energy Regional model (also referred to as ([[TIMER model|TIMER]]) is an energy model that has been developed to explore different scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE global environmental assessment framework ([[De Vries et al., 2001]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). TIMER is an energy system simulation model, describing the demand and supply of 12 different primary energy carriers in 26 world regions. Its main objective is to analyse the long-term trends in energy demand and supply, in the context of the sustainable development challenges described in the first paragraph . For this purpose, the model simulates long-term trends in energy use, issues related to depletion, energy-related greenhouse gas and other air polluting emissions, along with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships within the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade among the different regions. Similar most other parts of IMAGE, TIMER also is a simulation model. Its results depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms according to which the system state in any future year is derived entirely from previous system states. This differs from most macroeconomic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of a minimisation (of cost) or a maximisation (of utility) under boundary conditions. As such, TIMER can be compared to energy simulation models such as POLES ([[Criqui et al., 2003]]) and GCAM ([[Thomson et al., 2011]]). First, the energy supply and demand model is briefly introduced, followed by discussions on the different parts of the model in more detail, in subsequent sections.


==Model description==
===The energy supply and demand model (TIMER)===
The energy supply and demand model ([[TIMER model|TIMER]]) has three components: 1) [[Energy demand]], 2) [[Energy conversion]], and 3) [[Energy supply]] (see figure on the right). Energy demand is determined for five main economic sectors (industry, transport, residential, services and other). For some energy carriers, such as electricity and hydrogen, energy conversion models describe how these carriers are produced. A final set of models describes the production of primary energy carriers. The model calculates prices endogenously for both primary and secondary energy carriers that drive investment in the technologies associated with these carriers. The description of the different energy flows allows for calculating greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. The three model components are presented in more detail in the next sections.
The IMage Energy Regional model, also referred to as [[TIMER model|TIMER]], has been developed to explore scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE global environmental assessment framework ([[De Vries et al., 2001]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). TIMER describes 12 primary energy carriers in 26 world regions and is used to analyse long-term trends in energy demand and supply in the context of the sustainable development challenges<ref>The words energy demand and energy use are often used interchangeably. However, in the past data were about statistical energy use. For the future, trends were extrapolated and denoted as energy demand, which in the model is assumed to be fully supplied and thus equal to use.</ref>. The model simulates long-term trends in energy use, issues related to depletion, energy-related greenhouse gas and other air polluting emissions, together with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships in the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade between regions.  


==Data, uncertainties and limitations==
Similar to other IMAGE components, TIMER is a simulation model. The results obtained depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms, according to which the system state in any future year is derived entirely from previous system states. In this respect, TIMER differs from most macroeconomic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of minimising cost or maximising utility under boundary conditions. As such, TIMER can be compared to energy simulation models, such as [[POLES model|POLES]] ([[Criqui et al., 2003]]) and [[GCAM model|GCAM]] ([[Thomson et al., 2011]]).
The energy supply and demand model (TIMER) is a simulation, energy system model that focuses on long-term trends in energy supply and demand. It has been mainly developed in the context of analysing climate mitigation strategies – although it has been used to explore other sustainability issues, as well. These characteristics also impose some limitations on the model. First of all, the model cannot be used to look into macroeconomic consequences of mitigation strategies (such as [[GDP]] losses), as it simply does not include a description of parts of the economy other than energy. Second, the strategies depicted by the model are not necessarily optimal from an intertemporal perspective, as a simulation model has no information on future development in a scenario (myopic); instead, decisions are made on the basis of available model information at that moment in the scenario. Finally, although the model has been used to look into sustainability issues other than climate change, at the moment, some of the options for target setting (e.g. with the climate policy model – see [[Impacts]]) have not been fully developed.
 
<references/>
 
===Overview of TIMER===
The energy model has three components: energy demand; energy conversion; and energy supply (see Figure Flowchart). The energy demand component describes how energy demand is determined for five economic sectors -industry, transport, residential, services and other sectors. The energy conversion components describes how carriers such as electricity and hydrogen are produced. Finally, the energy supply modules describe the production of primary energy carriers, and calculate prices endogenously for both primary and secondary energy carriers that drive investment in the technologies associated with these carriers. The energy flows in all three main components allow calculation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.
 
The energy model TIMER focuses on long-term trends in energy supply and demand. It was mainly developed for analysing climate mitigation strategies and has also been used to explore other sustainability issues. These characteristics impose some limitations on the model. Firstly, the model cannot be used to examine macroeconomic consequences of mitigation strategies, such as GDP losses, because other aspects of the economy are not included. Secondly, the strategies depicted by the model are not necessarily optimal from an inter-temporal perspective because as a simulation model, there is no information on future development in a scenario (myopic). Instead, decisions are made on the basis of available model information at that time in the scenario. Finally, although the model has been used to analyse sustainability issues other than climate change, still much less options have been included to explore such policies (see [[Air pollution and energy policies]]).
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
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Revision as of 08:15, 1 August 2017

Composition of Energy supply and demand

  1. Energy conversion
  2. Energy demand
  3. Energy supply

Additional info

  • Technical learning
    • Link to framework components overview
    Component is implemented in:
    Aggregated component:Components:
    Projects/Applications
    Models/Databases
    Key publications
    References
    TIMER, the energy demand and supply model in IMAGE 3.0
    Flowchart Energy supply and demand. Overview of the IMAGE/TIMER model

    Description of Energy supply and demand


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