Energy supply and demand: Difference between revisions
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* Secondly and relatedly, securing a reliable and affordable supply of energy is an important element in the economic and energy policies of many countries. Fossil fuel resources currently account for more than three-quarters of world energy use, but depletion is over time (at least for oil) expected to lead to rising costs while remaining easily accessible resources are concentrated more and more in a limited number of countries. | * Secondly and relatedly, securing a reliable and affordable supply of energy is an important element in the economic and energy policies of many countries. Fossil fuel resources currently account for more than three-quarters of world energy use, but depletion is over time (at least for oil) expected to lead to rising costs while remaining easily accessible resources are concentrated more and more in a limited number of countries. | ||
* Finally, combustion of fossil fuels is the single most important cause of local and regional air pollution and of greenhouse gas emissions. The future of the global energy system is highly uncertain and depends on such factors as technological innovations and breakthroughs, socio-economic development patterns, resource availability and societal choices. Exploring different scenarios for the future energy system can provide information to decision-makers upon which policy and management decisions can be based. | * Finally, combustion of fossil fuels is the single most important cause of local and regional air pollution and of greenhouse gas emissions. The future of the global energy system is highly uncertain and depends on such factors as technological innovations and breakthroughs, socio-economic development patterns, resource availability and societal choices. Exploring different scenarios for the future energy system can provide information to decision-makers upon which policy and management decisions can be based. | ||
==The | ==The energy model (TIMER)== | ||
The IMage Energy Regional model ([[hasAcronym::TIMER]]) is an energy model that has been developed to explore different scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE environmental assessment framework. TIMER is an energy-system simulation model, describing the demand and supply of 12 different primary energy carriers in 26 world regions [[links to background pages]]. Its main objective is to analyze the long-term trends in energy demand and supply and in efficiency in the context of the sustainable development challenges described in the first paragraph. (see [[#note on energy use and demand]]) To this purpose, the model simulates long-term energy use trends, depletion related issues, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions, along with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships within the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade among the different regions. TIMER is a simulation model: the results depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms according to which the system state in year t is derived entirely from previous system states. This differs from most macro-economic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of a minimization (of cost) or maximization (of utility) under boundary conditions. such, TIMER can be compared to an energy simulation models such as POLES (Criqui and Kouvaritakis, 2000). | The IMage Energy Regional model ([[hasAcronym::TIMER]]) is an energy model that has been developed to explore different scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE environmental assessment framework. TIMER is an energy-system simulation model, describing the demand and supply of 12 different primary energy carriers in 26 world regions [[links to background pages]]. Its main objective is to analyze the long-term trends in energy demand and supply and in efficiency in the context of the sustainable development challenges described in the first paragraph. (see [[#note on energy use and demand]]) To this purpose, the model simulates long-term energy use trends, depletion related issues, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions, along with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships within the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade among the different regions. TIMER is a simulation model: the results depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms according to which the system state in year t is derived entirely from previous system states. This differs from most macro-economic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of a minimization (of cost) or maximization (of utility) under boundary conditions. such, TIMER can be compared to an energy simulation models such as POLES (Criqui and Kouvaritakis, 2000). | ||
===Note on energy use and demand=== | ===Note on energy use and demand=== | ||