Difference between revisions of "Forest management/Policy issues"

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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
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|Application=
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|Reference=PBL, 2010; Brown, 2000;
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|IMAGEComponent=Biodiversity
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|Description=In most baseline scenarios, areas of managed forests increase. The IMAGE forest management model was used in the scenario study ‘Rethinking global biodiversity strategies’ on future biodiversity developments ([[PBL, 2010]]). The study projects that, in the absence of additional forestry policy, the area of forest plantations will increase only slightly between 2000 and 2050 (from 1.1 to 1.2 million km<sup>2</sup>). The total forest area for wood production will increase from 9.5 to 14.5 million km<sup>2</sup> (the figure below, left panel). According to this projection, by 2050, just over a third of the global forest area will be used for wood production and consequently. In the same year, the area of primary forest, defined in IMAGE as established before 1970 and not exploited since, will decrease by more than 6 million km<sup>2</sup> from almost 30 million km<sup>2</sup> in 2000.
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|Reference=ten Brink et al., 2010
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|Example=Several policy interventions on forest management can be simulated in the IMAGE model 3.0:
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|Description=<h2>Introduction</h2>
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* increase in production on highly productive forest plantations;
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For the “Rethinking global biodiversity strategies” scenario study on future biodiversity developments, a set of policy options was designed and implemented (see [[ten Brink et al., 2010]]).
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* increase in carbon storage to mitigate climate change;
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* increasing harvest efficiencies, or using harvest residues for energy;
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* more reduced impact logging (RIL) techniques, less conventional selective felling.
  
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<h3>Baseline development</h3>
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The  scenario study [[Rethinking Biodiversity Strategies (2010) project|‘Rethinking global biodiversity strategies’]] implemented the following two ambition levels for improved forest management as alternatives for the baseline trend (the figures above  and below):
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[[File:ForestManagementComparison.jpg|left|alt=Forest areas (left) in the baseline and under improved forest management|thumb|Forest areas (left) in the baseline and under improved forest management|200px]]
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# Moderate ambition level: partial substitution of conventional selective felling in tropical forests with RIL techniques, and forest plantations targeted at supplying 25% of the global wood demand;
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In the absence of additional  forest policies, the area of productive plantations is assumed to increase only slightly in the baseline between 2000 and 2050 (from 1.1 to 1.2 million km2). As a result, the total forest area in use for wood production increases from 9.5 to 14.5 million km2 (see  left panel figure ). In 2050, just over a third of the global forest area will be in use for production. As a consequence of the increasing area for forestry, the area of primary and restored (=unused) forest decreases with more than 6 million km2, starting from almost 30 million km2 in 2000.
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# High ambition level: full substitution of conventional selective felling with RIL techniques as of 2010, and forest plantations targeted at supplying 40% of the global wood demand by 2050. This represents a plausible future development of plantation growth ([[Brown, 2000]]).  
  
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Opmerking: plaatjes knippen!
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The ambitious improvements in forest management will result in considerably less land used for forestry by 2050 (about 10 million km<sup>2</sup>, or one third smaller area than under the baseline scenario) (see the figure above). With the reduced forest area, and the assumed positive effects of {{abbrTemplate|RIL}} techniques, biodiversity loss caused by forestry will be reduced. For the lower ambition level, gains will be smaller with forestry area expanding well over 3 million km<sup>2</sup>, and less biodiversity loss prevented.
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|IMAGEComponent=Biodiversity
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{{#ask:[[Category:PolicyIntervention]][[HasComponent::{{#titleparts: {{BASEPAGENAME}} | 1 }}]]
 
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<h3> Scenario Implementation</h3>
 
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Two different ambitions for introducing improved forest management were implemented, analysed, and compared to the baseline (see figures below):
 
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<ol>
 
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<li> a moderate ambition option (“FM-Low”) with partial substitution of conventional selective logging in tropical forests by RIL practices, and plantation establishment targeted at 25% of global wood demand; </li>
 
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<li> a high ambition option (“FM-High”) with full substitution of conventional selective logging by RIL practices and plantation establishment targeted at 40% of global wood demand. This still represents a plausible development for future plantation growth (Brown, 2000). Application of RIL measures is implemented immediately in 2010, while plantation establishment continues up to 2050. </li>
 
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</ol>
 
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The ambitious implementation of improved forest management (SFM-H) results in considerable less land-use for forestry by 2050. The globally required forest area increases by only 0.5 million km2 between 2000 and 2050, and now a total of about 10 million km2 will be in use (two thirds compared to the baseline). With such a reduced forest use, and the assumed positive effects from applying RIL, the biodiversity loss through forestry is lower. For the less ambitious option, the gains are of course smaller, with an expansion of the forestry area of well over 3 million km2, and less avoided biodiversity loss. See figure 1,  Prevented loss is measured in MSA, see Biodiversity component.
 
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[[File:ForestManagementComparison.jpg|1) Forest areas (left), and extent and distribution of forest management types (right) in the baseline and under improved forest management. |alt=Forest areas (left), and extent and distribution of forest management types (right) in the baseline and under improved forest management.|400px|center|thumb]]
 
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[[File:PreventedLossComparison.jpg|2) Prevented loss of biodiversity due to improved forest management|alt=Prevented loss of biodiversity due to improved forest management.|400px|center|thumb]]
 

Revision as of 14:23, 3 November 2016

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Forest management/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Key publications
References
Forest management module in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Forest management. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page. The option of forest plantations in IMAGE and LPJmL is still under development, and expected to be available soon.
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