Forest management/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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| | |Reference=PBL, 2010; Brown, 2000; | ||
|Description=In most baseline scenarios, areas of managed forests increase. The IMAGE forest management model was used in the scenario study ‘Rethinking global biodiversity strategies’ on future biodiversity developments ([[PBL, 2010]]). The study projects that, in the absence of additional forestry policy, the area of forest plantations will increase only slightly between 2000 and 2050 (from 1.1 to 1.2 million km<sup>2</sup>). The total forest area for wood production will increase from 9.5 to 14.5 million km<sup>2</sup> (the figure below, left panel). According to this projection, by 2050, just over a third of the global forest area will be used for wood production and consequently. In the same year, the area of primary forest, defined in IMAGE as established before 1970 and not exploited since, will decrease by more than 6 million km<sup>2</sup> from almost 30 million km<sup>2</sup> in 2000. | |||
|Example=Several policy interventions on forest management can be simulated in the IMAGE model 3.0: | |||
* increase in production on highly productive forest plantations; | |||
* increase in carbon storage to mitigate climate change; | |||
* increasing harvest efficiencies, or using harvest residues for energy; | |||
* more reduced impact logging (RIL) techniques, less conventional selective felling. | |||
The scenario study [[Rethinking Biodiversity Strategies (2010) project|‘Rethinking global biodiversity strategies’]] implemented the following two ambition levels for improved forest management as alternatives for the baseline trend (the figures above and below): | |||
# Moderate ambition level: partial substitution of conventional selective felling in tropical forests with RIL techniques, and forest plantations targeted at supplying 25% of the global wood demand; | |||
# High ambition level: full substitution of conventional selective felling with RIL techniques as of 2010, and forest plantations targeted at supplying 40% of the global wood demand by 2050. This represents a plausible future development of plantation growth ([[Brown, 2000]]). | |||
The ambitious improvements in forest management will result in considerably less land used for forestry by 2050 (about 10 million km<sup>2</sup>, or one third smaller area than under the baseline scenario) (see the figure above). With the reduced forest area, and the assumed positive effects of {{abbrTemplate|RIL}} techniques, biodiversity loss caused by forestry will be reduced. For the lower ambition level, gains will be smaller with forestry area expanding well over 3 million km<sup>2</sup>, and less biodiversity loss prevented. | |||
|IMAGEComponent=Biodiversity | |IMAGEComponent=Biodiversity | ||
}} | }} | ||
Revision as of 14:23, 3 November 2016
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