Difference between revisions of "Human development/Description"

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|Status=On hold
 
|Status=On hold
 
|Reference=Hilderink, 2000; UNDP, 1990; UNDP, 2010; WHO, 2002; Cairncross and Valdmanis, 2006; Mathers and Loncar, 2006; Craig et al., 1999; Smith and Haddad, 2000; De Onis and Blossner, 2003; FAO, 2003; Mathers and Loncar, 2006; Pandey et al., 2006; Dockery et al., 1993; Pope et al., 1995; Ravallion et al., 2008;
 
|Reference=Hilderink, 2000; UNDP, 1990; UNDP, 2010; WHO, 2002; Cairncross and Valdmanis, 2006; Mathers and Loncar, 2006; Craig et al., 1999; Smith and Haddad, 2000; De Onis and Blossner, 2003; FAO, 2003; Mathers and Loncar, 2006; Pandey et al., 2006; Dockery et al., 1993; Pope et al., 1995; Ravallion et al., 2008;
|Description=<h1> Description /h1>
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|Description=<h1> Description </h1>
 
In the GISMO model, the impacts of global environmental change on human development are  modelled by considering impacts on human health – either directly, for example, via the impact of climate change on malaria, or indirectly, such as by the impact of climate change on food availability. In addition to environmental factors, human health is also driven by socioeconomic factors, including income levels and educational attainment. To take account of these different factors and their interrelation, the GISMO model consists of three modules that address human health, poverty and education (see Figure on the right). The modules are linked through a cohort component population model, including endogenous fertility and mortality (for details see [[Hilderink, 2000]]). Fertility levels are modelled using a convergence level that is determined by female educational levels, and a speed of convergence, determined by the human development index ([[HDI]]) (see below). Mortality rates are determined by the health module, which is discussed in further detail in the remainder of this section. Future trends in migration, including urbanisation, are put exogenously into the model (for details see [[Hilderink, 2000]])
 
In the GISMO model, the impacts of global environmental change on human development are  modelled by considering impacts on human health – either directly, for example, via the impact of climate change on malaria, or indirectly, such as by the impact of climate change on food availability. In addition to environmental factors, human health is also driven by socioeconomic factors, including income levels and educational attainment. To take account of these different factors and their interrelation, the GISMO model consists of three modules that address human health, poverty and education (see Figure on the right). The modules are linked through a cohort component population model, including endogenous fertility and mortality (for details see [[Hilderink, 2000]]). Fertility levels are modelled using a convergence level that is determined by female educational levels, and a speed of convergence, determined by the human development index ([[HDI]]) (see below). Mortality rates are determined by the health module, which is discussed in further detail in the remainder of this section. Future trends in migration, including urbanisation, are put exogenously into the model (for details see [[Hilderink, 2000]])
  
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GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (see Table), with access defined by per-capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating.  
 
GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (see Table), with access defined by per-capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating.  
  
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==== Access to food ====
 
The per-capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the [[Agricultural economy and forestry]] module.  
 
The per-capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the [[Agricultural economy and forestry]] module.  
 
The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modelled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanisation rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, improved water supply and sanitation, household connection for water supply only, and to a household connection for watersupply and sanitation.
 
 
The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and the use of modern energy carriers (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and decentralised renewable sources). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the TIMER residential [[Energy demand]] model.
 
  
 
Child underweight and prevalence of undernourishment. For children under the age of five, undernourishment is expressed as underweight (measured as weight-for-age), whereas for older ages prevalence of undernourishment is used. The direct effect of undernourishment is protein deficiency, which for children mortality rates is scaled to their underweight status; for older age groups, mortality rates are scaled to levels of undernourishment. Indirectly, undernourishment increases the incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia, and the case fatality of malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia. These indirect effects are only modelled for children under the age of five.
 
Child underweight and prevalence of undernourishment. For children under the age of five, undernourishment is expressed as underweight (measured as weight-for-age), whereas for older ages prevalence of undernourishment is used. The direct effect of undernourishment is protein deficiency, which for children mortality rates is scaled to their underweight status; for older age groups, mortality rates are scaled to levels of undernourishment. Indirectly, undernourishment increases the incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia, and the case fatality of malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia. These indirect effects are only modelled for children under the age of five.
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The prevalence of undernourishment is calculated from per-capita food availability and the minimum energy requirements from FAO ([[FAO, 2003]]). The calculations use a lognormal distribution function determined by mean food consumption and a coefficient of variation. The coefficient of variation decreases over time as a function of per-capita GDP. Finally, the minimum dietary energy requirement is derived by aggregating region-specific sex-age energy requirements weighted by the proportion of each sex and age group in the total population, including a so-called pregnancy allowance.  
 
The prevalence of undernourishment is calculated from per-capita food availability and the minimum energy requirements from FAO ([[FAO, 2003]]). The calculations use a lognormal distribution function determined by mean food consumption and a coefficient of variation. The coefficient of variation decreases over time as a function of per-capita GDP. Finally, the minimum dietary energy requirement is derived by aggregating region-specific sex-age energy requirements weighted by the proportion of each sex and age group in the total population, including a so-called pregnancy allowance.  
  
==== Pneumonia ====
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==== Access to water ====
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The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modelled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanisation rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, improved water supply and sanitation, household connection for water supply only, and to a household connection for watersupply and sanitation.
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Incidence rates of diarrhoea depend on the different levels of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities, child underweight levels and also on climate change. Case fatality rates are increased by underweight levels and decreased by the level of oral rehydration therapy.
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==== Access to energy ====
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The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and the use of modern energy carriers (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and decentralised renewable sources). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the TIMER residential [[Energy demand]] model.
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Incidence rates of pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ([[HasAcronym::COPD]]) and lung cancer are increased by indoor air pollution caused by cooking and heating with traditional biomass and coal.  
 
Incidence rates of pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ([[HasAcronym::COPD]]) and lung cancer are increased by indoor air pollution caused by cooking and heating with traditional biomass and coal.  
 
Simultaneously, incidence rates and case fatality rates are increased by child underweight levels.
 
Simultaneously, incidence rates and case fatality rates are increased by child underweight levels.
 
==== Diarrhoea ====
 
Incidence rates of diarrhoea depend on the different levels of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities, child underweight levels and also on climate change. Case fatality rates are increased by underweight levels and decreased by the level of oral rehydration therapy.
 
  
 
=== Urban air pollution ===
 
=== Urban air pollution ===

Revision as of 18:34, 16 December 2013