Difference between revisions of "Human development/Description"

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|Description=In the GISMO model, the impacts of global environmental change on human development are  modelled by considering impacts on human health – either directly, for example, via the impact of climate change on malaria, or indirectly, such as by the impact of climate change on food availability. In addition to environmental factors, human health is also driven by socioeconomic factors, including income levels and educational attainment. To take account of these different factors and their interrelation, the GISMO model consists of three modules that address human health, poverty and education (Figure 7.6.1). The modules are linked through a cohort component population model, including endogenous fertility and mortality (for details see Hilderink 2000). Fertility levels are modelled using a convergence level that is determined by female educational levels, and a speed of convergence, determined by the human development index (HDI) (see below). Mortality rates are determined by the health module, which is discussed in further detail in the remainder of this section. Future trends in migration, including urbanisation, are put exogenously into the model (for details see Hilderink 2000)
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The Human Development Index (HDI), introduced in the UNDP Human Development Report 1990, to rank development achievement is a composite index of life expectancy, education, and income indices (UNDP 1990; UNDP 2010). The underlying indicators have been refined several times, over the years, while the three elements have remained the same. The index links to the three GISMO model components.
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Revision as of 11:03, 9 December 2013

GISMO model to assess human development in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Human development. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Model description of Human development

In the GISMO model, the impacts of global environmental change on human development are modelled by considering impacts on human health – either directly, for example, via the impact of climate change on malaria, or indirectly, such as by the impact of climate change on food availability. In addition to environmental factors, human health is also driven by socioeconomic factors, including income levels and educational attainment. To take account of these different factors and their interrelation, the GISMO model consists of three modules that address human health, poverty and education (Figure 7.6.1). The modules are linked through a cohort component population model, including endogenous fertility and mortality (for details see Hilderink 2000). Fertility levels are modelled using a convergence level that is determined by female educational levels, and a speed of convergence, determined by the human development index (HDI) (see below). Mortality rates are determined by the health module, which is discussed in further detail in the remainder of this section. Future trends in migration, including urbanisation, are put exogenously into the model (for details see Hilderink 2000)

The Human Development Index (HDI), introduced in the UNDP Human Development Report 1990, to rank development achievement is a composite index of life expectancy, education, and income indices (UNDP 1990; UNDP 2010). The underlying indicators have been refined several times, over the years, while the three elements have remained the same. The index links to the three GISMO model components.