Human development/Description: Difference between revisions

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The GISMO health model considers mortality due to (i) malaria; (ii) communicable and infectious diseases associated with undernourishment, poor access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation and poor indoor air quality; (iii) diseases caused by poor outdoor air quality; (iv) HIV-AIDS; and (v) chronic diseases including high blood pressure and obesity. Here, we only discuss the first three causes of mortality as they are linked to environmental factors. The mortality rate due to a specific disease is a multiplication of the incidence rate (fraction of the population with the specific disease) and the case fatality rate (fraction of the people who die from the specific disease), distinguishing for the two sexes and 5-year age cohorts. These mortality rates can then be used to calculated age-specific life expectancy (for details see Hilderink, 2000).  
The GISMO health model considers mortality due to (i) malaria; (ii) communicable and infectious diseases associated with undernourishment, poor access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation and poor indoor air quality; (iii) diseases caused by poor outdoor air quality; (iv) HIV-AIDS; and (v) chronic diseases including high blood pressure and obesity. Here, we only discuss the first three causes of mortality as they are linked to environmental factors. The mortality rate due to a specific disease is a multiplication of the incidence rate (fraction of the population with the specific disease) and the case fatality rate (fraction of the people who die from the specific disease), distinguishing for the two sexes and 5-year age cohorts. These mortality rates can then be used to calculated age-specific life expectancy (for details see Hilderink, 2000).  


(i) Malaria risk. In GISMO, incidence rates of malaria are determined by the areas which are suitable for the malaria mosquito based on the monthly climatic factors temperature and precipitation (chapter 6.3) (Craig et al., 1999). The incidence rates are decreased by the level of insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, modeled separately as potential policy options. The case fatality rate of malaria is increased by underweight levels and decreased by case management, i.e. treatment).
*Malaria risk. In GISMO, incidence rates of malaria are determined by the areas which are suitable for the malaria mosquito based on the monthly climatic factors temperature and precipitation (chapter 6.3) (Craig et al., 1999). The incidence rates are decreased by the level of insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, modeled separately as potential policy options. The case fatality rate of malaria is increased by underweight levels and decreased by case management, i.e. treatment).


(ii) Access to food, water and energy. GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (Table 7.6.2), with access defined by per capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. The per capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the IMAGE model (chapter 4.2).  The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modeled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanization rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking-water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, to improved water supply and sanitation, to a household connection for water supply only, to a household connection for water supply and sanitation. The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of 1) traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; 2) traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and 3) the use of modern fuels (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and solar stoves). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the TIMER residential model (Chapter 4.1.1).
*Access to food, water and energy. GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (Table 7.6.2), with access defined by per capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. The per capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the IMAGE model (chapter 4.2).  The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modeled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanization rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking-water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, to improved water supply and sanitation, to a household connection for water supply only, to a household connection for water supply and sanitation. The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of 1) traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; 2) traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and 3) the use of modern fuels (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and solar stoves). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the [[TIMER]] residential model.


Child underweight and prevalence of undernourishment. For children under five years of age undernourishment is expressed as underweight (measured as weight-for-age), while for higher ages the prevalence of undernourishment is used. The direct effect of undernutrition is protein deficiency, which for children mortality rates are scaled to their underweight status; for higher age groups mortality rates are scaled to the levels of undernourishment. Indirectly, undernourishment enhances the incidence of diarrhea and pneumonia, and the case fatality of malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. Thees in direct effects are only modeled for children under five.
Child underweight and prevalence of undernourishment. For children under five years of age undernourishment is expressed as underweight (measured as weight-for-age), while for higher ages the prevalence of undernourishment is used. The direct effect of undernutrition is protein deficiency, which for children mortality rates are scaled to their underweight status; for higher age groups mortality rates are scaled to the levels of undernourishment. Indirectly, undernourishment enhances the incidence of diarrhea and pneumonia, and the case fatality of malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. Thees in direct effects are only modeled for children under five.
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==GISMO education model==
==GISMO education model==
The education model addresses future developments in school enrolment and educational attainment, including literacy rates, for three levels of education: primary, secondary and tertiary. The model tracks the shares of the highest completed education and the average years of schooling per cohort. The enrolment ratios per education level are determined, using cross-sectional relationships with per capita GDP (PPP). The ages at which children attain a certain educational level are assumed to be equal for all regions. Literacy rates are proxied by the share of the population, aged 15+, having completed at least their primary education. Furthermore, to take account of autonomous increases in literacy levels, yearly literacy levels of the population between 15 and 65 increase by 0.3% per year.
The education model addresses future developments in school enrolment and educational attainment, including literacy rates, for three levels of education: primary, secondary and tertiary. The model tracks the shares of the highest completed education and the average years of schooling per cohort. The enrolment ratios per education level are determined, using cross-sectional relationships with per capita GDP (PPP). The ages at which children attain a certain educational level are assumed to be equal for all regions. Literacy rates are proxied by the share of the population, aged 15+, having completed at least their primary education. Furthermore, to take account of autonomous increases in literacy levels, yearly literacy levels of the population between 15 and 65 increase by 0.3% per year.
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