Human development/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
|Status=On hold
|Reference=PBL, 2009; PBL, 2012;
|Reference=Hilderink et al., 2009; PBL 2009; PBL, 2012;  
|Description=The GISMO model has been used to evaluate various baseline scenarios, including that for the [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project|Rio+20]] study ([[PBL, 2012]]). In most of these scenarios, access to food, improved drinking water, basic sanitation and modern energy sources all increase significantly up to 2050. Yet, even under large increases in access levels, a significant proportion of the population will still be without adequate services, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2050, around 300 million people will live below a minimum level of food energy consumption, 250 million without sustainable access to safe drinking water, 1.4 billion without basic sanitation and 1.9 billion without access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. Global child mortality is projected to reduce significantly, from 67 deaths per 1000 children born in 2010 to fewer than 45 by 2030 and 28 by 2050, with large improvements in all world regions (the figure below). To comply with the {{abbrTemplate|MDG}} on child mortality (MDG4), the under-five mortality rate should be reduced by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015. Without new policies, this target will not be achieved, mainly due to persistent high levels of child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see also [[PBL, 2009]]).
|Description=In the past, the [[GISMO model]] has been used to evaluate several baseline scenarios, including the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 study. In this scenario (and in most others), access to food, improved drinking water, basic sanitation and modern energy sources all increase significantly up to 2050. Yet, even under large increases, a significant proportion of the population will still be without adequate services, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2050, around 300 million people will be without adequate access to food, 250 million without sustainable access to safe drinking water, 1.4 billion without basic sanitation and 1.9 billion without access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. Global child mortality is projected to reduce significantly, from 67 deaths per 1000 children born in 2010 to fewer than 45 by 2030 and 28 by 2050, with large improvements in all world regions (see Figure on the left). To comply with MDG4, child mortality, by 2015, should   be reduced to around 30 deaths per 1000 children born. Without new policies, this target will not be achieved before 2030, mainly due to persistent high levels of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see also [[PBL, 2009]]).
|Example=Policy interventions to decrease human health loss and child mortality rates can be classified as:
|Example=Policy interventions to decrease human health loss and child mortality rates can be classified as:
# (primary) prevention, i.e. eliminating or reducing health risks;  
# prevention through eliminating or reducing health risks;  
# curation, i.e investing in health systems that lower the chances of dying of a particular disease or due to a health hazard.  
# treatment through investing in health systems to reduce deaths from a specific disease or due to a specific health hazard.
Prevention in order to eliminate or reduce health risks is generally implemented by (see Policy intervention Table below):
:* increasing access levels by lowering prices and investing in infrastructure;
:* improving the quality of access through, for example, household connections to the drinking-water supply and use of LPG or kerosene instead of using improved biomass stoves;
:* improving behaviour through women’s education, hygiene measures and better house ventilation;
:* mitigating environmental changes, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress.
GISMO addresses access to drinking water and sanitation, quality of access and behavioural issues. Access to food and energy and mitigating environmental changes is addressed in other components of the IMAGE framework. GISMO can be used to explore how sustainability goals related to human well-being, such as reducing under-five mortality, can be achieved (the figure below). In a [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project|recent study]], two scenarios were developed ([[PBL, 2012]]). In the first scenario (‘global technology’) full access to food, water and energy is induced. In this scenario, all people will have access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by 2030 by subsidising modern energy sources and distributing improved biomass stoves. Furthermore, all people will have access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation by 2050 (exogenous assumption). Finally, hunger will be eradicated by 2050 by increasing global food production, specifically targeting staples such as wheat, rice and other cereals. The second scenario (‘challenge + ‘) adds quality of access with respect to water and energy and assumes full enrolment of girls in secondary education by 2030.


Prevention generally relates to taking away risk by:
As a result of the policy interventions described above, global child mortality rates are projected to decline by 12% by 2030, and by more than 26% by 2050, in the ‘global technology’ scenario compared to the baseline scenario (the figure below). The additional policies in the second scenario are stylised in the sense that they are not calculated using the full modelling framework and, therefore, do not take into account all socioeconomic and environmental constraints. Under this scenario, child mortality delines by almost 25% by 2030 and by 34% by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. However, in neither of the two scenarios MDG4 is achieved.
# increasing access levels by lowering prices and investing in infrastructure;
# improving the quality of access through, for example, household connections to the drinking-water supply and LPG or kerosene instead of using improved biomass stoves;
# improving behaviour through female education, hygiene measures and good ventilation; 
# mitigating environmental changes, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress. The GISMO model addresses the first three options, whereas the last option is addressed in other parts of the IMAGE framework.
 
The Figure on the left presents the results from two policy scenarios in addition to the baseline scenario (see also [[PBL, 2012]]). The first scenario (Global Technology Pathway) addresses improving access to food, water and energy:
* By 2030, all people will have access to modern energy sources or at least will use improved biomass stoves for cooking
* By 2050, hunger will be eradicated
* By 2050 all people will have access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation
 
The second scenario (Challenge+) adds quality of access and some elements of behavioural change to the access scenario:
* By 2050, access to safe drinking water for all households
* By 2050, full transition towards modern energy carriers for cooking and heating
* By 2030, full enrolment of girls in secondary education
 
The policies on food and energy in the first scenario are handled in other parts of the IMAGE framework. Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is forced exogenously and therefore not dynamically modelled. As a result, the global child mortality rate is projected to improve by 12% by 2030, and by more than 26% by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. The policies in the second scenario are stylised in the sense that they are not calculated using the full modelling framework and, therefore, do not take into account socioeconomic and environmental constraints. Under this scenario, child mortality will improves by almost 25% by 2030 and 34% by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. Removing health risks through further improved energy and water services, would eliminate most of the attributable mortality. Furthermore, a stronger focus on female education would lead to better child nutrition of children and reduces child underweight.
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Revision as of 14:32, 24 June 2014

link to framework components overview

Parts of Human development/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
GISMO model to assess human development in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Human development. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
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