IMAGE framework: Difference between revisions
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===Integrated environmental assessment=== | ===Integrated environmental assessment=== | ||
Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see introduction page [[IMAGE_framework_introduction\Organisational set-up and scientific quality|Organisational set-up and scientific quality). | Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see introduction page [[IMAGE_framework_introduction\Organisational set-up and scientific quality|Organisational set-up and scientific quality]]). | ||
===Objective and scope of IMAGE=== | ===Objective and scope of IMAGE=== | ||
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*How policies and measures prevent unwanted impacts on the global environment and human development. | *How policies and measures prevent unwanted impacts on the global environment and human development. | ||
The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|Components]]. | The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|framework Components]]. | ||
Often, alternative scenarios explore possible solutions to a problem, such as climate change, by assuming societal and policy responses to the impacts projected under baseline conditions. To this end, alternative cases are developed and implemented in model compatible terms to test how the outcomes change. They also reveal synergies and trade-offs between policy issues. For example, with increasing crop yields, less land is required to grow a given amount of crops, and thus loss of natural areas is reduced to the benefit of ecosystems rich in biodiversity. Carbon emissions from land use are also reduced when less land is converted to agriculture, but fertiliser application may increase to sustain the higher yields with emissions to air, groundwater and surface water as a consequence. Furthermore, higher yields may contribute to lower food prices and thus to reducing undernourishment and hunger to the benefit of human health. | Often, alternative scenarios explore possible solutions to a problem, such as climate change, by assuming societal and policy responses to the impacts projected under baseline conditions. To this end, alternative cases are developed and implemented in model compatible terms to test how the outcomes change. They also reveal synergies and trade-offs between policy issues. For example, with increasing crop yields, less land is required to grow a given amount of crops, and thus loss of natural areas is reduced to the benefit of ecosystems rich in biodiversity. Carbon emissions from land use are also reduced when less land is converted to agriculture, but fertiliser application may increase to sustain the higher yields with emissions to air, groundwater and surface water as a consequence. Furthermore, higher yields may contribute to lower food prices and thus to reducing undernourishment and hunger to the benefit of human health. | ||
Revision as of 16:58, 12 May 2014
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