Difference between revisions of "IMAGE framework"

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{{FrameworkIntroductionTemplate
 
{{FrameworkIntroductionTemplate
 
|Overview=Framework overview;
 
|Overview=Framework overview;
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|Application=ADVANCE project;
 
|Model-Database=FUND model; DICE model; ENV-Linkages model;
 
|Model-Database=FUND model; DICE model; ENV-Linkages model;
 
|Reference=Zalasiewicz et al., 2010;
 
|Reference=Zalasiewicz et al., 2010;
 
|Description=<h2>Setting the stage</h2>
 
|Description=<h2>Setting the stage</h2>
 
===Background===
 
===Background===
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{{DisplayFigureTemplate|Big Flowchart}}
 
The IMAGE 3.0 framework addresses a set of global environmental issues and sustainability challenges. The most prominent are climate change, land-use change, biodiversity loss, modified nutrient cycles, and water scarcity. These highly complex issues are characterised by long-term dynamics and are either global issues, such as climate change, or manifest in a similar form in many places making them global in character. Typically, these global environmental issues have emerged as human societies have harnessed natural resources to support their development, for instance to provide energy, food, water and shelter.  
 
The IMAGE 3.0 framework addresses a set of global environmental issues and sustainability challenges. The most prominent are climate change, land-use change, biodiversity loss, modified nutrient cycles, and water scarcity. These highly complex issues are characterised by long-term dynamics and are either global issues, such as climate change, or manifest in a similar form in many places making them global in character. Typically, these global environmental issues have emerged as human societies have harnessed natural resources to support their development, for instance to provide energy, food, water and shelter.  
  
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===Integrated environmental assessment===
 
===Integrated environmental assessment===
Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see framework introduction part: [[IMAGE framework introduction/Organisational set-up and scientific quality|Organisational set-up and scientific quality]]).  
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Integrated assessment models ({{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s) have been developed to describe the key processes in the interaction of human development and the natural environment. IAM methods and tools draw on functional relationships between activities, such as provision of food, water and energy, and the associated impacts. Traditionally, most IAMs focused on climate change and air pollution. More recently, these models have been expanded to assess an increasing number of impacts, such as air and water quality, water scarcity, depletion of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, phosphorus), and overexploitation of renewable resources (fish stocks, forests). IAMs are designed to provide insight into how driving factors induce a range of impacts, taking into account some of the key feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. To achieve this effectively, IAMs need to be sufficiently detailed to address the problem, yet simple enough to be applicable in assessments, including exploration of uncertainties, and without loss of transparency because of the complex relationships involved (see IMAGE framework part: [[IMAGE framework/Organisational set-up and scientific quality|Organisational set-up and scientific quality]]).  
  
 
===Objective and scope of IMAGE===
 
===Objective and scope of IMAGE===
IMAGE is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. Its design relies on intermediate complexity modelling, balancing level of detail to capture key processes and behaviour, and allowing for multiple runs to explore aspects of sensitivity and uncertainty of the complex, interlinked systems (see framework introduction part: [[IMAGE_framework_introduction/A_brief_history_of_IMAGE|A brief history of IMAGE]]).  
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IMAGE is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. Its design relies on intermediate complexity modelling, balancing level of detail to capture key processes and behaviour, and allowing for multiple runs to explore aspects of sensitivity and uncertainty of the complex, interlinked systems (see IMAGE framework part: [[IMAGE framework/A brief history of IMAGE|A brief history of IMAGE]]).  
  
 
The objectives of IMAGE are as follows:  
 
The objectives of IMAGE are as follows:  
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====Baseline Scenario====
 
====Baseline Scenario====
The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|framework Components]].
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The baseline scenario is used to assess the magnitude and relevance of global environmental issues and how they relate to human activities. This is important at the beginning of a policy cycle when an environmental issue arises. The scenario can be used to explore how the future might unfold under business-as-usual, and to assess the costs and foregone opportunities of policy inaction, and to study the impacts on the natural environment of a human development pathway with essentially unaltered practices. To some degree, impacts may be taken into account in an endogenous feedback loop by the integrated assessment procedure. For instance, changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change have an effect on agricultural productivity and water availability. Biophysical feedbacks of this type are part of the IMAGE model, see [[Framework_overview|framework components]].
  
 
====Alternative scenarios====
 
====Alternative scenarios====
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===IMAGE in comparison to other IAMs===
 
===IMAGE in comparison to other IAMs===
 
Various types of IAMs have been developed, evolving from different classes of models with a specific disciplinary focus and point of entry. These are discussed briefly in order to identify the position of IMAGE in relation to other IAM models. The common feature of all IAM models is that they all describe a combination of the Human and Earth systems to gain better understanding global environmental problems.  
 
Various types of IAMs have been developed, evolving from different classes of models with a specific disciplinary focus and point of entry. These are discussed briefly in order to identify the position of IMAGE in relation to other IAM models. The common feature of all IAM models is that they all describe a combination of the Human and Earth systems to gain better understanding global environmental problems.  
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IMAGE is part of the [[IAMC]], the Integrated Assessment Model Consortium. The [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/ADVANCE_wiki IAMC models] website offers an overview of a number of IAMs and their model properties. See the [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/Reference_card_-_IMAGE Reference card]] page and the [http://themasites.pbl.nl/models/advance/index.php/Special:RunQuery/Models-AttributesForm Model comparison] page.
  
 
====Detail versus simplification====
 
====Detail versus simplification====
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Another limitation to the level of detail captured in IAMs is the lack of consistent and complete datasets with global coverage.  
 
Another limitation to the level of detail captured in IAMs is the lack of consistent and complete datasets with global coverage.  
While models are developed for different purposes, and thus have limited overlap in scope and detail, in practice many hybrid models are in use. As illustrated in Figure below, IAM models are between models with a primary focus on the Earth system (Earth System Models) and models that focus on the Human system such as pure economic models.  
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While models are developed for different purposes, and thus have limited overlap in scope and detail, in practice many hybrid models are in use. As illustrated in the figure below, IAM models are between models with a primary focus on the Earth system (Earth System Models) and models that focus on the Human system such as pure economic models.  
{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure1 IFI}}
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure1 IMAGE framework introduction}}
 
Within the IAM group clearly different model groups exists, and IMAGE is characterised by relatively detailed biophysical processes and a wide range of environmental indicators. IMAGE 3.0 also includes an economic model to represent the agricultural system, and a process model to describe the energy system, but has less detail on economics and policy instruments than other energy models. In terms of application, many models are designed and used for climate policy analysis, such as [[FUND model|FUND]] and [[DICE model|DICE]], while other models address a broader range of issues. IMAGE was originally designed to assess the global effect of greenhouse gas emissions and now covers a broad range of environmental and sustainability issues.  
 
Within the IAM group clearly different model groups exists, and IMAGE is characterised by relatively detailed biophysical processes and a wide range of environmental indicators. IMAGE 3.0 also includes an economic model to represent the agricultural system, and a process model to describe the energy system, but has less detail on economics and policy instruments than other energy models. In terms of application, many models are designed and used for climate policy analysis, such as [[FUND model|FUND]] and [[DICE model|DICE]], while other models address a broader range of issues. IMAGE was originally designed to assess the global effect of greenhouse gas emissions and now covers a broad range of environmental and sustainability issues.  
  

Revision as of 15:09, 11 July 2017