IMAGE framework summary/Description: Difference between revisions
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Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | ||
[[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure1_IF_summary|link=Trends in population and income.]] | [[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure1_IF_summary|link=Trends in population and income.|Trends in population and income.]] | ||
===Human activities in relation to environmental change: the energy and land use system === | ===Human activities in relation to environmental change: the energy and land use system === | ||
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''The model can be used to make detailed projections of energy developments, for instance with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 baseline scenario, the baseline scenario (without climate policy) projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected, to stay below the alternative fuels for the vast majority of applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to a an increased share for of different technologies and resources, such as carbon-capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables; see Figure 2.4.'' | ''The model can be used to make detailed projections of energy developments, for instance with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 baseline scenario, the baseline scenario (without climate policy) projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected, to stay below the alternative fuels for the vast majority of applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to a an increased share for of different technologies and resources, such as carbon-capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables; see Figure 2.4.'' | ||
[[File:009x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure2_IF_summary|link=Trends in world energy use, with and without climate policy.]] | [[File:009x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure2_IF_summary|link=Trends in world energy use, with and without climate policy.|Trends in world energy use, with and without climate policy.]] | ||
====Food consumption and agriculture==== | ====Food consumption and agriculture==== | ||
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''In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions. For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse: a decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase). In most developing country regions, however, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. The model can also be used to design scenarios that are consistent with different climate targets. For reaching the 2oC target, global [[GHG]] emissions would need to be reduced by around 50% in 2050.'' | ''In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions. For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse: a decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase). In most developing country regions, however, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. The model can also be used to design scenarios that are consistent with different climate targets. For reaching the 2oC target, global [[GHG]] emissions would need to be reduced by around 50% in 2050.'' | ||
[[File:013x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Global geenhouse gas emissions and temperature changes|link=Changes in emissions under baseline (trend scenario) and 2ºC scenario (challenge pathways)]] | [[File:013x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Global geenhouse gas emissions and temperature changes|link=Changes in emissions under baseline (trend scenario) and 2ºC scenario (challenge pathways)|Changes in emissions under baseline (trend scenario) and 2ºC scenario (challenge pathways)]] | ||
===The earth system=== | ===The earth system=== | ||
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''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ||
{{FormulaTemplate|Figure5_IF}} | {{FormulaTemplate|Figure5_IF}} | ||
[[File:015g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Framework summary figure 5.|link=Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)]] | [[File:015g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Framework summary figure 5.|link=Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)|Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)]] | ||
====Human development==== | ====Human development==== | ||
Revision as of 12:07, 12 December 2013
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