Human development/Description: Difference between revisions
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 11: | Line 11: | ||
The GISMO health model considers mortality due to (i) malaria; (ii) communicable and infectious diseases associated with undernourishment, poor access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation and poor indoor air quality; (iii) diseases caused by poor outdoor air quality; (iv) HIV-AIDS; and (v) chronic diseases including high blood pressure and obesity. Here, we only discuss the first three causes of mortality as they are linked to environmental factors. The mortality rate due to a specific disease is a multiplication of the incidence rate (fraction of the population with the specific disease) and the case fatality rate (fraction of the people who die from the specific disease), distinguishing for the two sexes and 5-year age cohorts. These mortality rates can then be used to calculated age-specific life expectancy (for details see Hilderink, 2000). | The GISMO health model considers mortality due to (i) malaria; (ii) communicable and infectious diseases associated with undernourishment, poor access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation and poor indoor air quality; (iii) diseases caused by poor outdoor air quality; (iv) HIV-AIDS; and (v) chronic diseases including high blood pressure and obesity. Here, we only discuss the first three causes of mortality as they are linked to environmental factors. The mortality rate due to a specific disease is a multiplication of the incidence rate (fraction of the population with the specific disease) and the case fatality rate (fraction of the people who die from the specific disease), distinguishing for the two sexes and 5-year age cohorts. These mortality rates can then be used to calculated age-specific life expectancy (for details see Hilderink, 2000). | ||
*Malaria risk. In GISMO, incidence rates of malaria are determined by the areas which are suitable for the malaria mosquito based on the monthly climatic factors temperature and precipitation [[Atmospheric composition and climate]] (Craig et al., 1999). The incidence rates are decreased by the level of insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, modeled separately as potential policy options. The case fatality rate of malaria is increased by underweight levels and decreased by case management, i.e. treatment). | *Malaria risk. In GISMO, incidence rates of malaria are determined by the areas which are suitable for the malaria mosquito based on the monthly climatic factors temperature and precipitation ([[Atmospheric composition and climate]]) (Craig et al., 1999). The incidence rates are decreased by the level of insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying, modeled separately as potential policy options. The case fatality rate of malaria is increased by underweight levels and decreased by case management, i.e. treatment). | ||
*Access to food, water and energy. GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (Table 7.6.2), with access defined by per capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. The per capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the IMAGE model (chapter 4.2). The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modeled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanization rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking-water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, to improved water supply and sanitation, to a household connection for water supply only, to a household connection for water supply and sanitation. The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of 1) traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; 2) traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and 3) the use of modern fuels (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and solar stoves). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the [[TIMER]] residential model. | *Access to food, water and energy. GISMO relates incidence and case fatality rates of major communicable (infectious) diseases to access to food, water and energy (Table 7.6.2), with access defined by per capita food availability, access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation, and access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. The per capita food availability (Kcal/cap/day) is obtained from the IMAGE model (chapter 4.2). The levels of access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation are modeled separately by applying linear regression. The explanatory variables include GDP per capita, urbanization rate and population density. Developments in water supply are assumed to be implemented ahead of sanitation. As such, developments in access follow a pathway from no sustainable access to safe drinking-water and basic sanitation, to improved water supply only, to improved water supply and sanitation, to a household connection for water supply only, to a household connection for water supply and sanitation. The level of access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating distinguishes between the use of 1) traditional biomass and coal on traditional stoves; 2) traditional biomass and coal on improved stoves; and 3) the use of modern fuels (electricity, natural gas, LPG, kerosene, modern biofuels and solar stoves). Trends in access to modern energy sources are taken from the [[TIMER]] residential model. | ||
| Line 25: | Line 25: | ||
Incidence rates of diarrhea depend on the different connection levels to drinking water and sanitation facilities, child underweight levels and by temperature increase. The case fatality rates are increased by underweight levels and decreased by the level of oral rehydration therapy. | Incidence rates of diarrhea depend on the different connection levels to drinking water and sanitation facilities, child underweight levels and by temperature increase. The case fatality rates are increased by underweight levels and decreased by the level of oral rehydration therapy. | ||
(iii) Mortality associated with urban air pollution. Mortality rates of lung cancer, cardiopulmonary diseases and acute respiratory infections due to urban air pollution (i.e. PM10 and PM2. | (iii) Mortality associated with urban air pollution. Mortality rates of lung cancer, cardiopulmonary diseases and acute respiratory infections due to urban air pollution (i.e. PM10 and PM2.5 concentration levels) are derived applying the GBD methodology (Mathers and Loncar, 2006). Based on the emissions of NOx, SO2 and black carbon (chapter 5), PM10 concentration levels are determined using the Global Urban Air quality Model (GUAM). GUAM originates from the GMAPS model (Pandey et al., 2006), that determines PM10 concentration levels by economic activity, population, urbanization and meteorological factors. PM2.5 concentrations are obtained using a region-specific PM10/PM2.5 ratio. Based on these concentration levels and the exposed population, mortality attributable to the aforementioned causes of death is derived using relative risks. These relative risks are obtained from epidemiological literature (Dockery et al., 1993; Pope et al., 1995). | ||
==GISMO poverty model== | ==GISMO poverty model== | ||