Human development/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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|Description=Policy interventions to decrease human health loss and child mortality rates can be classified as: | |Description=The GISMO model has been used to evaluate several baseline scenarios, including the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 study. In this scenario (and in most others) access to food, improved drinking water, basic sanitation and modern energy sources increases significantly towards 2050. Yet even with the large increase, a significant proportion of the population will still be without adequate services, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2050, around 300 million people will be without adequate access to food, 250 million people without sustainable access to safe drinking water, 1.4 billion people without basic sanitation and 1.9 billion people without access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. Global child mortality is projected to reduce significantly, from 67 child deaths per 1000 children born in 2010 to less than 45 in 2030 and 28 in 2050, with large improvements in all world regions (Figure 7.6.2). To comply with MDG4, child mortality should be reduced to around 30 child deaths per 1000 children born in 2015. Without new policies, this target will not be reached before 2030, mainly due to persistent high levels of child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see also PBL, 2009). | ||
|Example=Policy interventions to decrease human health loss and child mortality rates can be classified as: | |||
# (primary) prevention, i.e. eliminating or reducing the health risk, and | # (primary) prevention, i.e. eliminating or reducing the health risk, and | ||
# curation, i.e investing in health systems which lowers the chances of dying of a particular disease or health risk. | # curation, i.e investing in health systems which lowers the chances of dying of a particular disease or health risk. | ||
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# improving behavior through women education, hygiene measures and good ventilation; and | # improving behavior through women education, hygiene measures and good ventilation; and | ||
# mitigating environmental changes such as climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress. The GISMO model addresses the first three options, while the last option is addressed in other parts of the IMAGE framework. | # mitigating environmental changes such as climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress. The GISMO model addresses the first three options, while the last option is addressed in other parts of the IMAGE framework. | ||
In Figure 7.6.3 we present the results of two policy scenarios on top of the baseline scenario (see also PBL, 2012). The first scenario addresses improving access to food, water and energy: | |||
*By 2030 all people have access to modern energy sources or at least use improved biomass stoves for cooking | *By 2030 all people have access to modern energy sources or at least use improved biomass stoves for cooking | ||
*By 2050 hunger is eradicated | *By 2050 hunger is eradicated | ||
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*By 2050 a full transition towards modern fuels for cooking and heating | *By 2050 a full transition towards modern fuels for cooking and heating | ||
*By 2030 full enrolment of girls in secondary education | *By 2030 full enrolment of girls in secondary education | ||
The policies on food and energy in the first scenario are handled in other parts of the IMAGE framework. Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is forced exogenously and therefore not dynamically modelled. As a result the global child mortality rate is improved with 12% in 2030 and more than 26% by 2050 compared to the baseline (see Figure 7.6.3). The policies in the second scenario are stylized in the sense that they are not calculated using the full modeling framework and therefore do not take into account socio-economic and environmental constraints. In this scenario, child mortality improves by almost 25% in 2030 and 34% in 2050 compared to the baseline. Removing health risks due to further improved energy and water services eliminates most of the attributable mortality. Furthermore, targeting female education significantly improves the utilisation of food and reduces child underweight due to better nutrition. | The policies on food and energy in the first scenario are handled in other parts of the IMAGE framework. Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is forced exogenously and therefore not dynamically modelled. As a result the global child mortality rate is improved with 12% in 2030 and more than 26% by 2050 compared to the baseline (see Figure 7.6.3). The policies in the second scenario are stylized in the sense that they are not calculated using the full modeling framework and therefore do not take into account socio-economic and environmental constraints. In this scenario, child mortality improves by almost 25% in 2030 and 34% in 2050 compared to the baseline. Removing health risks due to further improved energy and water services eliminates most of the attributable mortality. Furthermore, targeting female education significantly improves the utilisation of food and reduces child underweight due to better nutrition. | ||
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