Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentSubLimitationTemplate
{{ComponentSubLimitationTemplate
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013
|Status=On hold
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013; Hoogwijk et al., 2007
|Description=<h2>Data</h2>
|Description=<h2>Data</h2>
The data for the model comes from several sources, the main sources are documented below:
The data for the model comes from several sources, the main sources The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are
* Electricity production and primary inputs: Source [[hasAcronym::IEA]] Statistics and Data
* Electricity production and primary inputs: Source [[IEA]] Statistics and Data
* Capacity; Source: POLES database; IEA
* Capacity; Source: [[POLES database]]; IEA
* Data on performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants; Source; Mostly Hendriks et al.  
* Data on performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants: Source mostly [[Hendriks et al., 2004)]]
* Prices: Source IEA
* Prices: Source IEA
* Hydropower potential; Source: [[hasAcronym::WEA]]
* Hydropower potential: Source [[WEA]]


==Uncertainties==
==Uncertainties==
Important uncertainties in the calculation of the future role of energy conversion are the technology development rates of the various options and the system consequences of high level of renewable penetration.  
Important uncertainties in the calculation of future energy conversion relate to development rates of the different conversion technologies and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration.
 
For the United States and western Europe, the behaviour of the TIMER electric power model  has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]). Model experiments show that the model is able to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe system integration costs. More recent studies, however, seem to suggest that some of the limitations in renewable energy penetration can be overcome against reasonable costs, implying the current description is rather conservative. Integration costs for renewable energy, however, are very uncertain, given the fact that, except for in a few countries, large shares of market penetration still would need to be achieved. In experiments run by ([[Van Vliet et al., 2013]]), the power system was exposed to all kinds of limitations of technology availability. These experiments clearly showed that, in order to achieve low stabilisation targets, a large portfolio of mitigation options should be available


In the TIMER energy model, the model behavior regarding the latter factors has been tested for different penetration levels of renewables in the USA and Western Europe by [[Hoogwijk et al., 2007|Hoogwijk et al (2007)]]. Model experiments show that the model behaves in accordance with more detailed information on system integration costs. More recent studies, however, seem to suggest that some of the limitations can be overcome at reasonable costs. The integration costs are, however, very uncertain given the fact that, except for a few countries, the situation of high shares of renewable penetration still needs to be reached. In the experiments run by [[Van Vliet et al., 2013|Van Vliet et al (2013)]], the power system was exposed to all kinds of limitation to technology availability. These experiments clearly show the importance of certain options in the context of achieving low mitigation targets such as the combination of bio-energy and [[hasAcronym::CCS]] and of CCS in general.
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Revision as of 12:58, 18 November 2013

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