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<div class="page_standard"> <h2>Model description</h2> Most processes relevant for energy policy goals are directly related to the IMAGE energy model (Component [[Energy supply and demand]]). The relationship of these processes to the goals formulated for energy systems is presented in the figure below, which also provides examples of measures that can be taken in the system, and can be captured to some degree in the IMAGE system (see also the Policy intervention Tables ). {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Flowchart Air pollution and energy policies}} <h2>Policy issues</h2> The energy system is described in Component [[Energy supply and demand]], and emissions in Component [[Emissions]]. As indicated in the figure above, parts of the energy system are closely linked and thus achieving a specific policy goal has consequences for other goals. For instance, climate policies can lead to less use of fossil fuel, and thus also reduction in air pollution. How these goals are included in IMAGE is described briefly below. Policies are grouped by their purpose. {{DisplayFigureTemplate|Policy intervention figure Air pollution and energy policies}} </div>
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Policy intervention set description: ''Baseline developments'' While the concept of energy security is widely used, there is no consensus on its interpretation. Some focus on one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and import dependence, while others attempt to capture several elements in a single aggregated index. On the basis of IMAGE results, a wide set of indicators can be calculated to make a broad assessment of changes ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]). IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of known fossil resources accelerates as a result of increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in fewer producing countries in the 2010–2030 period. After 2030, the already existing trend towards unconventional oil (and gas) production will start to dominate and the market will diversify again. Under commonly used assumptions on resource assumptions, depletion dynamics for natural gas and certainly for coal play a small role in IMAGE results. ''Policy interventions'' <div class="version changev31"> {{abbrTemplate|TIMER}}, the IMAGE energy model, is used to explore policies to improve energy security, by imposing import restrictions, modifying fuel preferences and rising import taxes. The latter can be automatically optimized to reach energy import reduction targets. The model is used to project the consequences of climate policy on energy security, and in fact scenarios show that climate policy has co-benefits that improve energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources ([[PBL, 2012]]). This is shown in the figure (on the right) as trade is reduced as a consequence of climate policy, while trade in bioenergy increases. Analysis also shows that import restrictions mostly only have a temporary impact on energy security, leading to faster depletion of domestic resources, thus reducing long-term energy security ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]). In a multi-model study, IMAGE results have been used to analyze the synergies between energy security policy and climate policy ([[Jewell et al., 2016]]). This study indicated that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting only oil imports would have little impact on emissions. </div>
Consists of policy interventions: Afforestation policiesAgricultural trade policiesApply emission and energy intensity standardsAvoiding deforestationCapacity targetsCarbon taxChange in grazing intensityChange market shares of fuel typesChange the use of electricity and hydrogenChanges in consumption and diet preferencesChanges in crop and livestock production systemsChanges in feed rationClimate change adaptationClosing the yield gapEffort- or burden-sharing of emission reductionsEmission trading policyEnergy tax or subsidiyEnlarge protected areasExcluding certain technologiesExpanding Reduced Impact LoggingFinancing climate policyHydropowerImplementation of biofuel targetsImplementation of land use planningImplementation of sustainability criteria in bio-energy productionImprove behaviourImprove quality of accessImproved irrigation efficiencyImproved manure storageImproved rainwater managementImprovement of feed conversionImproving energy efficiencyIncrease access to foodIncrease access to waterIncrease forest plantationsIncrease natural carbon storageIncreased livestock productivityIncreased storage capacityIntegrated manure managementIntensification or extensification of livestock systemsIntensification/extensification of livestock systemsMitigate environmental changesMore sustainable forest managementNon-CO2 taxation policiesProduction targets for energy technologiesProvision on improved stoves for traditional bio-energyREDD policiesReducing health riskReduction of waste/lossesReduction proposals (pledges)Restrictions on fuel tradeSanitation measuresSubsidies on modern energy
Policy intervention set description: {{DisplayFigureTemplate|Baseline figure Air pollution and energy policies}} ''Baseline developments'' IMAGE can also be used to consider energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity ([[PBL, 2012]]) (see Figure). Low energy access has been reported to lead to development issues and to environmental issues. ''Policy interventions'' The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by either using modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. To make the transition, the IMAGE analysis include measures such as increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, and micro-lending facilities for easier access to credit and lower borrowing costs for households ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2012]]). For households for which the shift from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed as a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report ([[PBL, 2012]]), for instance, explored measures, such as subsidies and grid extension, to achieve 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030.
Policy intervention set description: {{DisplayFigureTemplate|Baseline figure Air pollution and energy policies}} ''Baseline developments'' Indoor and outdoor air pollution with negative health impacts are key issues for energy policies. IMAGE is used to explore air pollution policies, particularly in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants remain at high levels globally ([[PBL, 2012]]) (see Figure). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO<sub>2</sub> emissions remain constant and NO<sub>x</sub> emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing population because the impacts of air pollution are felt stronger by the elderly. ''Policy intervention'' Emissions of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be modelled explicitly, for instance, as a result of climate policy. Many technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to less emissions of air pollutants. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in an aggregated way). However, by relating the change in emission factors to those of more explicit air pollution models, it is possible to perform policy relevant experiments.
Policy intervention set description: See description at Air pollution policies and at Energy access policies above.
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