Energy demand/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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|Status= | |Status=Publishable | ||
|Reference=Van den Berg et al., 2011; | |Reference=Van den Berg et al., 2011; | ||
|Description=Under the baseline scenario, energy demand is projected to grow significantly during the 21st century. Most growth will be driven by an increase in energy use in low-income countries. In high-income countries, per-capita use is projected to remain more or less constant, consistent with recent historical trends. The increased demand for energy mostly will be met by electricity (in the first half of the century), fossil fuels, and in the long run also by hydrogen (that enters the transport as a result of increasing oil prices and the assumed progress in hydrogen technologies). | |Description=Under the baseline scenario, energy demand is projected to grow significantly during the 21st century. Most growth will be driven by an increase in energy use in low-income countries. In high-income countries, per-capita use is projected to remain more or less constant, consistent with recent historical trends. The increased demand for energy mostly will be met by electricity (in the first half of the century), fossil fuels, and in the long run also by hydrogen (that enters the transport as a result of increasing oil prices and the assumed progress in hydrogen technologies). | ||
|Example=The PBL study ‘Resource Efficiency’ ([[Van den Berg et al., 2011]]) provides an example of how the TIMER model can be used to explore the impact of radically improving energy efficiency. That study includes, amongst other things, an accelerated trend towards best-available technologies in iron and steel production and other industries, the implementation of the most efficient passenger vehicles and aircraft, a moderate shift from aircraft to high-speed trains, and building highly efficient housing (mostly insulation measures). The study also assumes that newly installed power plants will be based on the best available technologies. The measures in this global energy efficiency scenario will lead to a considerably lower energy use than under the baseline scenario. Primary energy consumption will be reduced by about 30% by 2050. | |Example=The PBL study ‘Resource Efficiency’ ([[Van den Berg et al., 2011]]) provides an example of how the TIMER model can be used to explore the impact of radically improving energy efficiency. That study includes, amongst other things, an accelerated trend towards best-available technologies in iron and steel production and other industries, the implementation of the most efficient passenger vehicles and aircraft, a moderate shift from aircraft to high-speed trains, and building highly efficient housing (mostly insulation measures). The study also assumes that newly installed power plants will be based on the best available technologies. The measures in this global energy efficiency scenario will lead to a considerably lower energy use than under the baseline scenario. Primary energy consumption will be reduced by about 30% by 2050. | ||
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