Flood risks/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:27, 18 May 2014

Parts of Flood risks/Policy issues

Component is implemented in:

GLOFRIS model (version GLOFRIS 3.0)

Components:

Flood risks

Related IMAGE components

Models/Databases

Key publications

Flowchart Flood risks. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 {{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
+|Description=GLOFRIS can be used to assess a wide range of scenarios based on data on land cover and climate change. The module , for instance, has been used to analyse the impact of floods on Bangladesh published in [[Winsemius et al., 2012]]. Calculations showed that population and economic growth are more likely to have greater impact on future flood risks than the impacts of climate change. Thus, the focus would need to be on how the changes in socio-economic conditions can be combined with flood risk reduction.
-|Description=The [[GLOFRIS model]] can be used to assess a wide range of scenarios based on information on land cover and climate change. The model, for instance, has been applied to analyse the impact of floods on Bangladesh. This case study was published in Winsemius et al. ([[Winsemius et al., 2012]]) and is summarised below.
+ The study compares the current situation with the impacts of changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions. The left panel in Figure below shows the pattern of a flood occurring once every 30 years according to GLOFRIS, scaled down to 1x1 km2 over Bangladesh, under current climate conditions. The right-hand panels in Figure below show the resulting expected values of damage under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, based on the two methods described in [[Winsemius, 2012]]. Flood risks have been computed using the two methods for the reference situation and for two climate data sets.
-The study compares the current situation with the impacts of changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions. The left panel in the maps on the right shows the pattern of a flood occurring once every 30 years according to GLOFRIS, scaled down to 1 x 1 km<sup>2</sup> over Bangladesh, under current climate conditions. The right-hand panels in the maps on the right show the resulting expected values of damage under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, based on the two methods mentioned above.
+|Example=To date, the model has not been used extensively for specific policy interventions. Measures taken elsewhere in the IMAGE framework to prevent climate change could also reduce flood risks.
-Risk has been computed using these two methods for the reference situation and the two climate data sets. Under the current climate conditions, the projected annual damage in [[HasAcronym::GDP]] is around [[HasAcronym::USD]]2010 740 million, according to the land-use method (asset damage), and USD2010 2183 million using the population method (affected GDP). The graph on the right shows that under the scenarios of hazard and exposure changes, these values increase by a factor of 22 to 30 and 21 to 28, respectively, depending on the climate model used. The effects of simulated change in exposure only (increase by a factor of 11 and 7, respectively) were found to be much higher than those of climate change (increase by a factor of 3 to 4, depending on climate model and impact assessment method used). Calculations show that in the case of Bangladesh, the impacts of population and economic growth are much more important for future risks than the impacts of climate change. It will, therefore, be of interest to consider how the changes in socioeconomic conditions can be combined with a reduction in flood risk.
-|Example=To date, the model has not been used extensively to model specific policy interventions. Obviously, measures taken elsewhere in the IMAGE model to prevent climate change would reduce flood risks as well.
 }}

Flood risks/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:27, 18 May 2014

Navigation menu

Search