Agricultural economy/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions
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|Reference=Stehfest et al., 2013; Woltjer, 2011 | |Reference=Stehfest et al., 2013; Woltjer, 2011 | ||
|Description=The Magnet model uses the GTAP 2007 database, and agricultural land use at the starting situation and is based on FAO statistics. A historic evaluation of the MAGNET model, or of any agricultural economy model, has not been carried out until now. A comparison between LEITAP (now MAGNET) and IMPACT revealed large differences in model results, even more in policy scenarios than in baseline projections (Stehfest et al., 2013). The most important differences and uncertainties in model results are related to the modelling of land supply and the relative contribution of intensification or expansion on total production growth, the conservation of current trade pattern in long-term scenarios, dynamics in the livestock sector, especially with respect to pasture area and grassland intensification (Stehfest et al, 2013 ), and on long-term dietary preferences (Ref). For MAGNET, and all other agro-economic models, the empirical basis of many of these parameters is rather poor, and has to be improved (Hertel, 2011). Furthermore, all substitutions in the model are on a per-dollar basis, which does not guarantee that changes in composition are consistent with the physical requirements e.g. in the livestock feeding, and therefore a closer link to physical units is necessary (Woltjer, 2011). | |Description=The Magnet model uses the GTAP 2007 database, and agricultural land use at the starting situation and is based on FAO statistics. A historic evaluation of the MAGNET model, or of any agricultural economy model, has not been carried out until now. A comparison between LEITAP (now MAGNET) and IMPACT revealed large differences in model results, even more in policy scenarios than in baseline projections ([[Stehfest et al., 2013]]). The most important differences and uncertainties in model results are related to the modelling of land supply and the relative contribution of intensification or expansion on total production growth, the conservation of current trade pattern in long-term scenarios, dynamics in the livestock sector, especially with respect to pasture area and grassland intensification ([[Stehfest et al, 2013]]), and on long-term dietary preferences (Ref). For MAGNET, and all other agro-economic models, the empirical basis of many of these parameters is rather poor, and has to be improved ([[Hertel, 2011]]). Furthermore, all substitutions in the model are on a per-dollar basis, which does not guarantee that changes in composition are consistent with the physical requirements e.g. in the livestock feeding, and therefore a closer link to physical units is necessary ([[Woltjer, 2011]]). | ||
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