Harmsen et al., 2019b
| Publication type: | Journal article |
| Title: | Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation |
| Authors: | Mathijs Harmsen, Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Lara Aleluia Reis, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Climatic Change (under review) |
| Citation: | Mathijs Harmsen, Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Lara Aleluia Reis, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith (2019). Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation. Climatic Change (under review). |
This reference is used on the following pages:
- EMF30 (Category:Application)
- Emissions/Policy issues (Category:ComponentPolicyIssue)
For an overview of all references see All references table overview or All references overview (citation format)
Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambitions mitigation of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2oC target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (In the year 2040: -0.03oC to -0.15oC) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by -2% to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.