Flood risks/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

From IMAGE
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
No edit summary
 
(7 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
|Status=On hold
}}
|Description=The [[GLOFRIS model]] can be used to assess a wide range of scenarios based on information on land cover and climate change. The model, for instance, has been applied to analyse the impact of floods on Bangladesh. This case study was published in Winsemius et al. ([[Winsemius et al., 2012]]) and is summarised below.  
<div class="page_standard">
==Baseline developments==
GLOFRIS can be used to assess a wide range of scenarios based on data on land cover and climate change. The module , for instance, has been used to analyse the impact of floods on Bangladesh published in [[Winsemius et al., 2012]]. Calculations showed that population and economic growth are more likely to have greater impact on future flood risks than the impacts of climate change. Thus, the focus would need to be on how the changes in socio-economic conditions can be combined with flood risk reduction.  


The study compares the current situation with the impacts of changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions. The left panel in the maps on the right shows the pattern of a flood occurring once every 30 years according to GLOFRIS, scaled down to 1 x 1 km<sup>2</sup> over Bangladesh, under current climate conditions. The right-hand panels in the maps on the right show the resulting expected values of damage under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, based on the two methods mentioned above.  
The study compares the current situation with the impacts of changes in climate and socio-economic conditions. The left panel in the figure below shows the pattern of a flood occurring once every 30 years according to GLOFRIS, scaled down to 1x1 km<sup>2</sup> over Bangladesh, under current climate conditions. The right-hand panels in the figure below show the resulting expected values of damage under current climate and socio-economic conditions, based on the two methods described in [[Winsemius et al., 2012]]. Flood risks have been computed using the two methods for the reference situation and for two climate data sets.
Risk has been computed using these two methods for the reference situation and the two climate data sets. Under the current climate conditions, the projected annual damage in [[HasAcronym::GDP]] is around [[HasAcronym::USD]]2010 740 million, according to the land-use method (asset damage), and USD2010 2183 million using the population method (affected GDP). The graph on the right shows that under the scenarios of hazard and exposure changes, these values increase by a factor of 22 to 30 and 21 to 28, respectively, depending on the climate model used. The effects of simulated change in exposure only (increase by a factor of 11 and 7, respectively) were found to be much higher than those of climate change (increase by a factor of 3 to 4, depending on climate model and impact assessment method used). Calculations show that in the case of Bangladesh, the impacts of population and economic growth are much more important for future risks than the impacts of climate change. It will, therefore, be of interest to consider how the changes in socioeconomic conditions can be combined with a reduction in flood risk.
 
|Example=To date, the model has not been used extensively to model specific policy interventions. Obviously, measures taken elsewhere in the IMAGE model to prevent climate change would reduce flood risks as well.
{{DisplayPolicyInterventionFigureTemplate|{{#titleparts: {{PAGENAME}}|1}}|Baseline figure}}
}}
==Policy interventions==
To date, the model has not been used extensively for specific policy interventions. Measures taken elsewhere in the IMAGE framework to prevent climate change could also reduce flood risks.
 
{{DisplayPolicyInterventionFigureTemplate|{{#titleparts: {{PAGENAME}}|1}}|Policy intervention figure}}
 
{{PIEffectOnComponentTemplate }}
</div>

Latest revision as of 17:40, 15 November 2018

link to framework components overview

Parts of Flood risks/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Components:
Related IMAGE components
Models/Databases
Key publications
GLOFRIS, the flood risk model in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Flood risks. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Baseline developments

GLOFRIS can be used to assess a wide range of scenarios based on data on land cover and climate change. The module , for instance, has been used to analyse the impact of floods on Bangladesh published in Winsemius et al., 2012. Calculations showed that population and economic growth are more likely to have greater impact on future flood risks than the impacts of climate change. Thus, the focus would need to be on how the changes in socio-economic conditions can be combined with flood risk reduction.

The study compares the current situation with the impacts of changes in climate and socio-economic conditions. The left panel in the figure below shows the pattern of a flood occurring once every 30 years according to GLOFRIS, scaled down to 1x1 km2 over Bangladesh, under current climate conditions. The right-hand panels in the figure below show the resulting expected values of damage under current climate and socio-economic conditions, based on the two methods described in Winsemius et al., 2012. Flood risks have been computed using the two methods for the reference situation and for two climate data sets.


Flood-related damage in Bangladesh, 30-year event, based on the historic climate (1961-1990)
Inundation depth of 30-year flood scaled down to Bangladesh (left); The estimated annual damage due to floods (not only due to a 30-year event) is more concentrated when applying the land-use method compared to the population method.

Policy interventions

To date, the model has not been used extensively for specific policy interventions. Measures taken elsewhere in the IMAGE framework to prevent climate change could also reduce flood risks.


Flood related damage in Bangladesh
Future expected annual damage due to flooding depends on future climate change, but much even more on future GDP and population distribution.


Retrieved from "https://models.pbl.nl/index.php?title=Flood_risks/Policy_issues&oldid=33548"