Global Environmental Outlook - GEO3 (2002) project

Website:	http://www.unep.org/geo/GEO3.asp
Application type:	1. Global integrated assessment
Role of IMAGE framework:	The GEO outlooks focused on environment for human well-being as the central theme linking environment and development. IMAGE contributed to the energy outlook, and calculated the land-use change and climate consequences of the four updated GEO scenarios.
Summary:	Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is a consultative, participatory process that builds capacity for conducting integrated environmental assessments for reporting on the state, trends and outlooks of the environment. GEO is also a series of products that informs environmental decision-making and aims to facilitate the interaction between science and policy.
Partner(s):	UNEP
Key publication(s):	UNEP/RIVM, 2004
Referred by:	Livestock systems

Scenarios

The scenarios are described below:

• The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries;
• In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals;
• The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail:
• Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.