Stehfest et al., 2019
| Publication type: | Journal article |
| Title: | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| Authors: | Elke Stehfest, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Hugo Valin, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Page Kyle, Andrzej Tabeau, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Tomoko Hasegawa, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Shinichiro Fujimori, Florian Humpenöder, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hans van Meijl and Keith Wiebe |
| Year: | 2019 |
| Journal: | Nature Communications |
| Volume: | 10 |
| DOI or URL: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w |
| Citation: | Elke Stehfest, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Hugo Valin, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Page Kyle, Andrzej Tabeau, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Tomoko Hasegawa, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Shinichiro Fujimori, Florian Humpenöder, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hans van Meijl and Keith Wiebe (2019). Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications, 10, doi: http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w. |
This reference is used on the following pages:
- Agricultural economy/Data uncertainties limitations (Category:ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitations)
For an overview of all references see All references table overview or All references overview (citation format)
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.