IMAGE framework/IMAGE 3.0 in a nutshell: Difference between revisions

From IMAGE
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 1: Line 1:
{{FrameworkIntroductionPartTemplate
{{FrameworkIntroductionPartTemplate
|IMAGEComponent=Agriculture and land use;
|ExternalModel=MAGICC model
|Description=<h2>The IMAGE 3.0 model</h2>
|Description=<h2>The IMAGE 3.0 model</h2>
IMAGE 3.0 is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. The model framework is suited to large scale (mostly global) and long-term (up to the year 2100) assessments of interactions between human development and the natural environment, and integrates a range of sectors, ecosystems and indicators. The impacts of human activities on the natural systems and natural resources are assessed and how such impacts hamper the provision of ecosystem services to sustain human development.  
IMAGE 3.0 is a comprehensive integrated modelling framework of interacting human and natural systems. The model framework is suited to large scale (mostly global) and long-term (up to the year 2100) assessments of interactions between human development and the natural environment, and integrates a range of sectors, ecosystems and indicators. The impacts of human activities on the natural systems and natural resources are assessed and how such impacts hamper the provision of ecosystem services to sustain human development.  
Line 10: Line 12:
*Comprehensive and balanced integration of energy and land systems was a pioneering feature of IMAGE. Recently, other {{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s have been developed in similar directions and comprehensive IAMs are becoming more mainstream.
*Comprehensive and balanced integration of energy and land systems was a pioneering feature of IMAGE. Recently, other {{abbrTemplate|IAM}}s have been developed in similar directions and comprehensive IAMs are becoming more mainstream.


*Coverage of all emissions by sources/sinks including natural sources/sinks makes IMAGE appropriate to provide input to bio-geochemistry models and complex Earth System Models (ESMs).  
*Coverage of all emissions by sources/sinks including natural sources/sinks makes IMAGE appropriate to provide input to bio-geochemistry models and complex Earth System Models ({{abbrTemplate|ESMs}}).  


*In addition to climate change, which is the primary focus of most IAMs, the IMAGE framework covers a broad range of closely interlinked dimensions. These include water availability and water quality, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity, resource depletion, with competing claims on land and many ecosystem services.
*In addition to climate change, which is the primary focus of most IAMs, the IMAGE framework covers a broad range of closely interlinked dimensions. These include water availability and water quality, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity, resource depletion, with competing claims on land and many ecosystem services.
Line 38: Line 40:
Currently, impacts emerging from additional models do not influence the outcome of the model run directly. The results obtained can reveal unsustainable or otherwise undesirable impacts, and induce exploration of alternative model assumptions to alleviate the problem. As the alternative is implemented in the linked models, synergies and trade-offs against other indicators are revealed.
Currently, impacts emerging from additional models do not influence the outcome of the model run directly. The results obtained can reveal unsustainable or otherwise undesirable impacts, and induce exploration of alternative model assumptions to alleviate the problem. As the alternative is implemented in the linked models, synergies and trade-offs against other indicators are revealed.


===state-of-the-world in 2005===
====state-of-the-world in 2005====
To apply IMAGE 3.0, all model settings are adjusted so that the model reproduces the state-of-the-world in 2005. The model calculates the state in 2005 over the period starting in 1970, using exogenous data to calibrate internal parameters. From 2005 onwards, a range of model drivers rooted in more generic narratives and scenario drivers must be prepared either by experts or teams at PBL or in partner institutes to provide inputs, such as population, economic projections and food production (see [[Scenario drivers]]. These steps are taken in consultation with stakeholders and sponsors of the studies, and with project partners.
To apply IMAGE 3.0, all model settings are adjusted so that the model reproduces the state-of-the-world in 2005. The model calculates the state in 2005 over the period starting in 1970, using exogenous data to calibrate internal parameters. From 2005 onwards, a range of model drivers rooted in more generic narratives and scenario drivers must be prepared either by experts or teams at PBL or in partner institutes to provide inputs, such as population, economic projections and food production (see [[Scenario drivers]]. These steps are taken in consultation with stakeholders and sponsors of the studies, and with project partners.


===IMAGE outputs===
====IMAGE outputs====
An IMAGE run produces a long list of outputs representing the results of the various parts of the framework, either as end indicator or as intermediate inputs driving operations further downstream. Together the outputs span the range from drivers to pressures, states and impacts.  
An IMAGE run produces a long list of outputs representing the results of the various parts of the framework, either as end indicator or as intermediate inputs driving operations further downstream. Together the outputs span the range from drivers to pressures, states and impacts.  
The IMAGE 3.0 model has a wide range of outputs, including:
The IMAGE 3.0 model has a wide range of outputs, including:
Line 57: Line 59:
These standard outputs are complemented with additional impact models with indicators for biodiversity, human development, water stress, and flood risks.
These standard outputs are complemented with additional impact models with indicators for biodiversity, human development, water stress, and flood risks.


Figure 1.2 Dark-coloured boxes refer to model components with section reference. Impacts are calculated in the lower box, and also inside the Human system and Earth system boxes (see Section 7.1); same as Figures 1 and 2.1. 001_img13
===Spatial resolution===
 
{{DisplayFigureTemplate|Region classification map}}
==Spatial resolution==
While IMAGE is designed to address global issues, impacts and challenges tend to occur at different geographic scales and to different degrees in different parts of the world. This depends on location-specific biophysical conditions, and on the level of human development (for example high income, industrialised versus low income, subsistence agriculture dominated regions, and all levels in between). It implies that indicators at the level of global totals or global averages are rarely adequate to reveal the real problems. Furthermore, policy interventions and governance structures are not uniform across scales and administrative entities, and are bound by cultural and political history.
While IMAGE is designed to address global issues, impacts and challenges tend to occur at different geographic scales and to different degrees in different parts of the world. This depends on location-specific biophysical conditions, and on the level of human development (for example high income, industrialised versus low income, subsistence agriculture dominated regions, and all levels in between). It implies that indicators at the level of global totals or global averages are rarely adequate to reveal the real problems. Furthermore, policy interventions and governance structures are not uniform across scales and administrative entities, and are bound by cultural and political history.


To capture spatial and multi-scale differences, IMAGE models socio-economic developments in 26 world regions (see Figure 1.3). Land use, land cover, and associated biophysical processes are treated at grid level to capture local dynamics. The grid size has been reduced to 5 x 5 arcminutes in IMAGE 3.0 (corresponding to 10 x 10 km at the equator), from 30 x 30 arcminutes (0.5 x 0.5 degrees) in IMAGE 2. Operating within global boundaries, the regional approach provides insight to identify where specific problems manifest, where the driving factors are concentrated, and how changes in some regions influence other regions.
To capture spatial and multi-scale differences, IMAGE models socio-economic developments in 26 world regions (see Figure on the right). Land use, land cover, and associated biophysical processes are treated at grid level to capture local dynamics. The grid size has been reduced to 5 x 5 arcminutes in IMAGE 3.0 (corresponding to 10 x 10 km at the equator), from 30 x 30 arcminutes (0.5 x 0.5 degrees) in IMAGE 2. Operating within global boundaries, the regional approach provides insight to identify where specific problems manifest, where the driving factors are concentrated, and how changes in some regions influence other regions.
   
   
Figure 1.3: 005k_img13
===Areas of application===
Areas of application
An integrated framework, such as IMAGE 3.0, covers a wide range of components of the Human and Earth systems, and contains variables in many domains. Development and applications of the IMAGE framework focus on two interrelated clusters: energy and climate; and food, land, water and biodiversity.
An integrated framework, such as IMAGE 3.0, covers a wide range of components of the Human and Earth systems, and contains variables in many domains. Development and applications of the IMAGE framework focus on two interrelated clusters: energy and climate; and food, land, water and biodiversity.


There are many relationships between these two clusters in IMAGE. For instance, climate change has impacts on agriculture and nature, land use for bioenergy has implications for food prices, and water for irrigation competes with water for coolant in electric power plants. Synergies and trade-offs are interesting from the perspective of policy discussions with regard to the complicating effects of unintended and often undesirable impacts. IMAGE 3.0 has the capacity to generate a long and widely diverging set of indicators for different sectors and regions.
There are many relationships between these two clusters in IMAGE. For instance, climate change has impacts on agriculture and nature, land use for bioenergy has implications for food prices, and water for irrigation competes with water for coolant in electric power plants. Synergies and trade-offs are interesting from the perspective of policy discussions with regard to the complicating effects of unintended and often undesirable impacts. IMAGE 3.0 has the capacity to generate a long and widely diverging set of indicators for different sectors and regions.
Modular structure
Over the years, various components of the IMAGE framework have been replaced by expert models developed outside IMAGE, which be used either as stand-alone models or within the IMAGE framework.
The IMAGE 3.0 core model comprises most processes in the Human system, the Earth system and their connectors Land cover/Land use and Emissions, and parts of the impacts (see Figure 1.2). This core model consists of IMAGE/TIMER energy and IMAGE/Land & Climate. The latter also includes the LPJmL model, which is an essential component of any IMAGE model run, representing carbon, water, crop and vegetation dynamics.
The IMAGE 3.0 framework contains other models that are employed to generate impacts (such as, GLOBIO, GLOFRIS and GISMO), and models that describe parts of the Human system, such as agro-economic models (MAGNET and IMPACT) to project future agricultural production requirements. Furthermore, policy models, such as FAIR, are used in exploring effectiveness, efficiency and equity of climate policy regimes, and to provide input on emission constraints and price signals arising from climate policy proposals (see Figure 1.2).


===Modular structure===
{{DisplayFigureTemplate|IMAGE framework scheme}}
Over the years, various components of the IMAGE framework have been replaced by expert models developed outside IMAGE, which be used either as stand-alone models or within the IMAGE framework (see [[Computer models overview]]) .
The IMAGE 3.0 core model comprises most processes in the Human system, the Earth system and their connectors Land cover/Land use and Emissions, and parts of the impacts (see Figure on the right). This core model consists of IMAGE/TIMER energy and IMAGE/Land & Climate. The latter also includes the LPJmL model, which is an essential component of any IMAGE model run, representing carbon, water, crop and vegetation dynamics.
The IMAGE 3.0 framework contains other models that are employed to generate impacts (such as, [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO]], {GLOFRIS model|GLOFRIS]] and [[GISMOmodel|GISMO]]), and models that describe parts of the Human system, such as agro-economic models ([[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]]) to project future agricultural production requirements. Furthermore, policy models, such as [[FAIR model|FAIR]], are used in exploring effectiveness, efficiency and equity of climate policy regimes, and to provide input on emission constraints and price signals arising from climate policy proposals.
|PageLabel=IMAGE 3.0 in a nutshell
|PageLabel=IMAGE 3.0 in a nutshell
|Sequence=2
|Sequence=2
}}
}}

Revision as of 18:31, 12 May 2014

Parts of IMAGE framework

  1. Setting the stage
  2. IMAGE 3.0 in a nutshell
  3. Recent model developments
  4. A brief history of IMAGE
  5. Organisational set-up and scientific quality
  6. Uncertainties
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Relevant overviews


Retrieved from "https://models.pbl.nl/index.php?title=IMAGE_framework/IMAGE_3.0_in_a_nutshell&oldid=21826"