IMAGE framework/Uncertainties: Difference between revisions
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Oostenrijr (talk | contribs) m (Text replace - "CO2 " to "CO<sub>2</sub>") |
Oostenrijr (talk | contribs) m (Text replace - "CO<sub>2</sub>" to "CO<sub>2</sub> ") |
||
| Line 9: | Line 9: | ||
===Structural and methodological uncertainty=== | ===Structural and methodological uncertainty=== | ||
There is structural and methodological uncertainty (incomplete knowledge of relationships) in many parts of the IMAGE framework, for instance the impact of climate change on crop yields, and local climate change. This uncertainty can be addressed to some extent by alternative model formulations, such as for crop growth/natural vegetation, carbon cycle, land-use allocation, climate change (via climate sensitivity and temperature/precipitation patterns). Structural uncertainty can also be addressed in model inter-comparison studies and other multi-model studies to compare IMAGE results with the range of outcomes from other models and with results for ranges found in literature, and to provide information on model functioning (see [[Applications]]. The overall model uncertainty arising from uncertain processes and data can be assessed in systematic sensitivity analyses. This has been done, for example, on the CO<sub>2</sub>fertilisation factor in crop and natural vegetation growth ([[Brinkman et al., 2005]]) and for many parameters of the energy model TIMER ([[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). | There is structural and methodological uncertainty (incomplete knowledge of relationships) in many parts of the IMAGE framework, for instance the impact of climate change on crop yields, and local climate change. This uncertainty can be addressed to some extent by alternative model formulations, such as for crop growth/natural vegetation, carbon cycle, land-use allocation, climate change (via climate sensitivity and temperature/precipitation patterns). Structural uncertainty can also be addressed in model inter-comparison studies and other multi-model studies to compare IMAGE results with the range of outcomes from other models and with results for ranges found in literature, and to provide information on model functioning (see [[Applications]]. The overall model uncertainty arising from uncertain processes and data can be assessed in systematic sensitivity analyses. This has been done, for example, on the CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation factor in crop and natural vegetation growth ([[Brinkman et al., 2005]]) and for many parameters of the energy model TIMER ([[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). | ||
===Uncertainty in future scenario drivers=== | ===Uncertainty in future scenario drivers=== | ||
Revision as of 10:30, 1 July 2014
| Projects/Applications |
| Models/Databases |
| Relevant overviews |
| References |