IMAGE framework summary/Earth system: Difference between revisions
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===Atmospheric composition and climate change=== | ===Atmospheric composition and climate change=== | ||
Calculated emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are used in IMAGE to derive changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and species involved in aerosol formation on a global scale (Component [[Atmospheric composition and climate]]). Climatic change is calculated as global mean temperature change using a slightly adapted version of the [[MAGICC model|MAGICC6.0]] climate model. Climatic change does not manifest uniformly over the globe. The patterns of temperature and precipitation are uncertain and differ between complex climate models. The changes in temperature and precipitation in each 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cell are derived from the global mean temperature using a pattern-scaling approach. The model accounts for feedback mechanisms related to changing climate, notably growth characteristics in the crop model, carbon dioxide concentrations (carbon fertilisation) and land cover ([[biome types]]). | Calculated emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are used in IMAGE to derive changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and species involved in aerosol formation on a global scale (Component [[Atmospheric composition and climate]]). Climatic change is calculated as global mean temperature change using a slightly adapted version of the [[MAGICC model|MAGICC6.0]] climate model. Climatic change does not manifest uniformly over the globe. The patterns of temperature and precipitation are uncertain and differ between complex climate models. The changes in temperature and precipitation in each 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cell are derived from the global mean temperature using a pattern-scaling approach. The model accounts for feedback mechanisms related to changing climate, notably growth characteristics in the crop model, carbon dioxide concentrations (carbon fertilisation) and land cover ([[biome types]] = [[Land cover types\biome types]]??). | ||
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Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (Figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C. | Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (Figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C. | ||
Revision as of 11:42, 12 May 2014
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