IMAGE framework summary/Impacts: Difference between revisions

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Biodiversity loss is assessed by the impact model GLOBIO (Component [[Terrestrial biodiversity]]) as calculated changes in mean species abundance ({{abbrTemplate|MSA}}). The MSA indicator maps the effect of direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss provided by IMAGE, including climate, land-use change, ecosystem fragmentation, expansion of infrastructure, disturbance of habitats, and acid and reactive nitrogen deposition. Their compound effect on biodiversity is computed with the [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO3 model]] for terrestrial ecosystems. As IMAGE and GLOBIO3 models are spatially explicit, the impacts on MSA can be analysed on a grid by region, main biome and pressure factor. A similar model has been developed to map biodiversity in fresh water (Component [[Aquatic biodiversity]]).
Biodiversity loss is assessed by the impact model GLOBIO (Component [[Terrestrial biodiversity]]) as calculated changes in mean species abundance ({{abbrTemplate|MSA}}). The MSA indicator maps the effect of direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss provided by IMAGE, including climate, land-use change, ecosystem fragmentation, expansion of infrastructure, disturbance of habitats, and acid and reactive nitrogen deposition. Their compound effect on biodiversity is computed with the [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO3 model]] for terrestrial ecosystems. As IMAGE and GLOBIO3 models are spatially explicit, the impacts on MSA can be analysed on a grid by region, main biome and pressure factor. A similar model has been developed to map biodiversity in fresh water (Component [[Aquatic biodiversity]]).
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Example: A further decline in biodiversity is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost historical rate. While historically habitat loss has been the key driver of biodiversity loss, more important pressures in the coming decades are projected to be climate change, forestry and infrastructure (Figure below).
Example: A further decline in biodiversity is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost historical rate. While historically habitat loss has been the key driver of biodiversity loss, more important pressures in the coming decades are projected to be climate change, forestry and infrastructure (the figure below).
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Policy intervention figure LBP II}}
{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Policy intervention figure LBP II}}
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Water supply levels and sanitation are modelled separately for urban and rural populations by applying an empirical regression model, depending on per capita GDP, urbanisation rate and population density.  
Water supply levels and sanitation are modelled separately for urban and rural populations by applying an empirical regression model, depending on per capita GDP, urbanisation rate and population density.  
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Example: With regard to global hunger, the Rio+20 scenario shows improvement compared to the last few decades. This improvement is a consequence of rapid income growth in low-income regions and levelling off of population growth (Figure below). The baseline scenario also shows a decline in population without access to safe drinking water, sanitation and modern energy. In all cases, the improvement is too slow compared to policy ambitions.
Example: With regard to global hunger, the Rio+20 scenario shows improvement compared to the last few decades. This improvement is a consequence of rapid income growth in low-income regions and levelling off of population growth (the figure below). The baseline scenario also shows a decline in population without access to safe drinking water, sanitation and modern energy. In all cases, the improvement is too slow compared to policy ambitions.
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure6 IF}}
{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure6 IF}}

Revision as of 11:51, 24 June 2014

Parts of IMAGE framework summary

  1. Introduction page
  2. Introduction model description
  3. Drivers
  4. The Human system
  5. Interaction Human - Earth system
  6. Earth system
  7. Impacts
  8. Policy issues
  9. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  10. Overview of references
Projects/Applications
Relevant overviews
Key publications


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