Land and biodiversity policies/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
|Status=On hold
|Status=On hold
|Description=This section is a compilation of policies on land use and biodiversity, from a systems point of view, and with a focus on the interactions between policy areas. It should be noted that the kind of analysis described in this section contains some important uncertainties, which increase even further when the analysis covers longer scenario periods. All processes involved have been described in the respective model-specific section, together with the related uncertainties (see Table 8.3.1). Therefore, those uncertainties are not addressed again in this section. Instead, the most crucial uncertainties from a systems perspective are discussed  
|Reference=Godfray et al., 2010; Leverington et al., 2010; Lambin et al., 2001;
|Description=This section is a compilation of policies on land use and biodiversity, from a systems point of view, and with a focus on the interactions between policy areas. It should be noted that the kind of analysis described in this section contains some important uncertainties, which increase even further when the analysis covers longer scenario periods. All processes involved have been described in the respective model-specific section, together with the related uncertainties ([[see Table 8.3.1**]]). Therefore, those uncertainties are not addressed again in this section. Instead, the most crucial uncertainties from a systems perspective are discussed  


==Uncertainties in consumption==
==Uncertainties in consumption==
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==Uncertainties in forestry==
==Uncertainties in forestry==
For forestry the most important uncertainty concerns the use of fuel wood and the sources of traditional biomass. Only limited data is available on these subjects ([[Forest Management]]). In developed countries, a substantial amount of fuel wood is still being used, and it is highly uncertain, how fast  a full shift to modern energy carriers will occur.  
For forestry the most important uncertainty concerns the use of fuel wood and the sources of traditional biomass. Only limited data is available on these subjects ([[Forest management]]). In developed countries, a substantial amount of fuel wood is still being used, and it is highly uncertain, how fast  a full shift to modern energy carriers will occur.  


==Uncertainties in land use regulation and  land use change==
==Uncertainties in land use regulation and  land use change==
For land-use regulation, the effectiveness of protected areas is not always sufficient to maintain original biodiversity values ([[Leverington et al., 2010]]). For land-use change, only the economic processes of the agricultural sector are taken into account. Complex socioeconomic interactions that drive deforestation [[(Lambin et al., 2001]]) are not part of the model. Likewise, the national institutional part of land use and land-use change is hardly included, although it is well-known that the institutional part largely defines the development of landscapes and land uses.   
For land-use regulation, the effectiveness of protected areas is not always sufficient to maintain original biodiversity values ([[Leverington et al., 2010]]). For land-use change, only the economic processes of the agricultural sector are taken into account. Complex socioeconomic interactions that drive deforestation ([[Lambin et al., 2001]]) are not part of the model. Likewise, the national institutional part of land use and land-use change is hardly included, although it is well-known that the institutional part largely defines the development of landscapes and land uses.   


The uncertainty range changes with the time horizon of the scenario, and is larger for indicators further down the modelling chain. For example, biodiversity results are largely driven by land-use change, which in turn is sensitive to uncertainties about land allocation and production systems, and finally to agricultural demand.  
The uncertainty range changes with the time horizon of the scenario, and is larger for indicators further down the modelling chain. For example, biodiversity results are largely driven by land-use change, which in turn is sensitive to uncertainties about land allocation and production systems, and finally to agricultural demand.  

Revision as of 18:02, 10 December 2013

link to framework components overview

Parts of Land and biodiversity policies/Data uncertainties limitations

  1. Introduction page
  2. Agricultural demand
  3. Agricultural production system
  4. Forestry sector
  5. Land-use regulation
  6. Policy issues
  7. Data, uncertainties and limitations
  8. Overview of references
Relevant overviews
References
Policy interventions in agricultural demand
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (A). Policy interventions in the agricultural demand system.
Policy interventions in the crop and livestock production systems
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (B). Policy interventions in crop and livestock production systems.
Policy interventions in the forestry system
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (C). Policy interventions targeting the forestry sector.
Policy interventions in land-use regulation
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (D). Policy interventions that regulate land use and land supply.
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