All policy intervention figures
All Policy intervention figures from IMAGE framework
(a) Land use in 2010. Land-use change in (b) 2010–2050 and (c) 2010–2100 for the scenarios with afforestation (Doelman et al., 2020)
Changes in agricultural production and land use
Compared to the baseline, energy trade is significantly reduced under the sustainability scenarios (PBL, 2012).
A set of ambitious policy options could reduce aquatic biodiversity loss compared to a baseline scenario.
In addition to ‘conventional’ climate policy, there may be situations where urgent action on climate change is required, either via rapid mitigation, or via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) (e.g. sulphur emissions to the stratosphere). Radiative forcing is immediately stabilised at the intended level by SRM, and also temperatures are adjusted immediately (though not yet at the equilibrium level), and even faster under extreme SRM than would be possible through strong mitigation. However, substantial uncertainties and risks are related to such drastic manipulations of the radiation balance.
Increasingly strict REDD regimes might lead to substantial reduction in cumulative terrestrial CO2 emission (Overmars et al., 2014).
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Scenario results describing emission pathways representing optimal and delayed policy action (Copenhagen pledges) in 2020, in terms of CO2 emission (including land use), associated radiative forcing (including all gases and aerosol forcing), and global mitigation costs (as percentage of GDP).
By the end of the century climate change impacts on crop yields under the baseline could be reduced by stringent climate policy.
Projected total world GDP in the OECD environmental outlook (OECD, 2012) and in the SSP scenarios according to OECD (left), per world region in SSP2 according to OECD (middle) and according to different sources for SSP3 (right). GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is shown in purchasing power parity (ppp), SSP data from the SSP database (IIASA, 2013).
While the supply of ecosystem services is decreasing under a baseline scenario, much of this decline could be avoided under a sustainability scenario (all based on PBL, 2012).
Climate policy has important co-benefits for air pollution.
The large share of conventional coal power in the baseline is replaced by fossil power with CCS and renewable capacity in the sustainability scenarios.
The ‘envisaged policies’ scenario includes currently planned policies, the ‘global resource efficiency’ scenario assumes ambitious energy efficiency policies, and the ‘global resource efficiency and climate policy’ scenario additionally assumes policies to meet the 2 °C target. Total primary energy use could be significantly reduced by policies on energy efficiency, whereas additional climate policy would mostly affect the type of resources used. (Van den Berg et al., 2011b)
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Future expected annual damage due to flooding depends on future climate change, but much even more on future GDP and population distribution.
Improved forest management can contribute to reducing biodiversity loss (measured in MSA, see Component Terrestrial biodiversity ).
Compared to the baseline, the sustainability scenarios ‘Global Technology’ and ‘Challenge +’ (PBL, 2012) will reduce child mortality, but the MDG target set for 2015 would still only be met after 2030.
Biodiversity is projected to decline further in the baseline scenario (left). Various measures in the demand system, the production system and in land-use regulation contribute to reducing biodiversity loss in the sustainability scenarios (right).
Results of several interventions in declining biodiversity loss (PBL, 2010)
As a result of soil degradation and changes in soil properties, yields are up to 30 % lower than they would have been under pristine conditions, in some parts of the world.
Impact of land-use change, protection and restoration policies on ecosystem functions (van Esch et al., 2021)
Future trends in grassland areas strongly depend on grassland management and productivity (PBL, 2012).
Several policy interventions can lead to a reduction in the global soil nitrogen budget compared to a baseline scenario (Bouwman et al., 2013c).
Several policy interventions in land-use regulation, production and demand systems could prevent some of the biodiversity loss projected in the baseline. The single largest effects can be expected from closing the yield gap, and from dietary changes.
Three of the five water basins on the Indian subcontinent strongly rely on groundwater resources to meet irrigation water demand. Doubling the capacity of large dams can increase the amount of irrigation water available in some basins. In all basins, improved irrigation efficiency leads to a significant reduction in water required for irrigation.
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