Global Environmental Outlook - GEO3 (2002) project

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Application type: 1. Global integrated assessment
Role of IMAGE framework: The GEO outlooks focused on environment for human well-being as the central theme linking environment and development. IMAGE contributed to the energy outlook, and calculated the land-use change and climate consequences of the four updated GEO scenarios.
Summary: Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is a consultative, participatory process that builds capacity for conducting integrated environmental assessments for reporting on the state, trends and outlooks of the environment. GEO is also a series of products that informs environmental decision-making and aims to facilitate the interaction between science and policy.
Partner(s): UNEP
Key publication(s): UNEP/RIVM, 2004
Referred by: Livestock systems


The scenarios are described below:

  • The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries;
  • In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals;
  • The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail:
  • Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.