IMAGE framework summary/Description: Difference between revisions
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Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | ||
[[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px| | [[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px|right|alt=Figure1_IF_summary|link=Trends in population and income.|Trends in population and income.]] | ||
===Human activities in relation to environmental change: the energy and land use system === | ===Human activities in relation to environmental change: the energy and land use system === | ||
Revision as of 12:09, 12 December 2013
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