IMAGE framework summary/Description: Difference between revisions
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Demand for and production of agricultural products are modeled by soft-coupled agro-economic models, mostly [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]]. With the MAGNET model information can be exchanged in two ways: the IMAGE model supplies the MAGNET model with information on land-supply curves by region (using the IMAGE crop model). And MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. The MAGNET model assesses the production of agricultural products on the basis of different combinations of primary production factors (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about the breakdown of livestock production over different systems. A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields, taking changes in growing conditions into account. In that context, it should be noted that an increase in demand for agricultural production can be met via increased production based on a land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use: increase in yields. | Demand for and production of agricultural products are modeled by soft-coupled agro-economic models, mostly [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]]. With the MAGNET model information can be exchanged in two ways: the IMAGE model supplies the MAGNET model with information on land-supply curves by region (using the IMAGE crop model). And MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. The MAGNET model assesses the production of agricultural products on the basis of different combinations of primary production factors (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about the breakdown of livestock production over different systems. A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields, taking changes in growing conditions into account. In that context, it should be noted that an increase in demand for agricultural production can be met via increased production based on a land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use: increase in yields. | ||
All baseline scenarios, including the Rio+20 baseline, project a strong increase in agricultural production, driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns in line with increasing per capita income. Consistent with the historical trends, most of the increase will be met through on average higher production per hectare (intensification). Still, in the Rio+20 baseline a further slow expansion of the agricultural area in developing countries can be observed, especially for crops and much less for pastures. Alternative scenarios explore ways to mitigate this agricultural expansion, looking into the influence of enhanced yield increase, reduction of post-harvest losses or dietary changes. | All baseline scenarios, including the [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012)|Rio+20]] baseline, project a strong increase in agricultural production, driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns in line with increasing per capita income. Consistent with the historical trends, most of the increase will be met through on average higher production per hectare (intensification). Still, in the Rio+20 baseline a further slow expansion of the agricultural area in developing countries can be observed, especially for crops and much less for pastures. Alternative scenarios explore ways to mitigate this agricultural expansion, looking into the influence of enhanced yield increase, reduction of post-harvest losses or dietary changes. | ||
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Revision as of 17:45, 17 December 2013
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