IMAGE framework summary/Description: Difference between revisions
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Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | Assumptions for future scenarios start from observed trends in recent decades and this is also the base for the baseline scenario used in the Rio+20 study ([[PBL, 2012]])). The global population is based on the UN medium projection and grows to about 9 billion people in 2050, the increase mostly occurring in developing countries. The economic projection shows that developing countries increasingly dominate the world economy in terms of total GDP. For the [[OECD]] countries, the baseline scenario assumes a long-term economic growth rate of 1-2% per year over the whole scenario period. In the short term, per capita growth rates in Asia and Latin America are much higher, but they start to converge gradually to a long-term growth rates of around 2% per year. Africa, in contrast, shows a later peak in economic growth. | ||
[[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure1_IF_summary|link=Trends in population and income.]] | [[File:007g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure1_IF_summary|link=Trends in population and income.]] | ||
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''The model can be used to make detailed projections of energy developments, for instance with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 baseline scenario, the baseline scenario (without climate policy) projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected, to stay below the alternative fuels for the vast majority of applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to a an increased share for of different technologies and resources, such as carbon-capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables; see Figure 2.4.'' | ''The model can be used to make detailed projections of energy developments, for instance with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 baseline scenario, the baseline scenario (without climate policy) projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected, to stay below the alternative fuels for the vast majority of applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to a an increased share for of different technologies and resources, such as carbon-capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables; see Figure 2.4.'' | ||
[[File:009x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Figure2_IF_summary|link=Trends in world energy use, with and without climate policy.]] | |||
====Food consumption and agriculture==== | ====Food consumption and agriculture==== | ||
Demand for and production of agricultural products are modeled by soft-coupled agro-economic models, mostly [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]]. With the MAGNET model information can be exchanged in two ways: the IMAGE model supplies the MAGNET model with information on land-supply curves by region (using the IMAGE crop model). And MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. The MAGNET model assesses the production of agricultural products on the basis of different combinations of primary production factors (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about the breakdown of livestock production over different systems. A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields, taking changes in growing conditions into account. In that context, it should be noted that an increase in demand for agricultural production can be met via increased production based on a land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use: increase in yields. | Demand for and production of agricultural products are modeled by soft-coupled agro-economic models, mostly [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]]. With the MAGNET model information can be exchanged in two ways: the IMAGE model supplies the MAGNET model with information on land-supply curves by region (using the IMAGE crop model). And MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. The MAGNET model assesses the production of agricultural products on the basis of different combinations of primary production factors (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about the breakdown of livestock production over different systems. A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields, taking changes in growing conditions into account. In that context, it should be noted that an increase in demand for agricultural production can be met via increased production based on a land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use: increase in yields. | ||
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All baseline scenarios, including the Rio+20 baseline, project a strong increase in agricultural production, driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns in line with increasing per capita income. Consistent with the historical trends, most of the increase will be met through on average higher production per hectare (intensification). Still, in the Rio+20 baseline a further slow expansion of the agricultural area in developing countries can be observed, especially for crops and much less for pastures. Alternative scenarios explore ways to mitigate this agricultural expansion, looking into the influence of enhanced yield increase, reduction of post-harvest losses or dietary changes. | All baseline scenarios, including the Rio+20 baseline, project a strong increase in agricultural production, driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns in line with increasing per capita income. Consistent with the historical trends, most of the increase will be met through on average higher production per hectare (intensification). Still, in the Rio+20 baseline a further slow expansion of the agricultural area in developing countries can be observed, especially for crops and much less for pastures. Alternative scenarios explore ways to mitigate this agricultural expansion, looking into the influence of enhanced yield increase, reduction of post-harvest losses or dietary changes. | ||
{{FormulaTemplate|Figure3_IF}} | {{FormulaTemplate|Figure3_IF}} | ||
===Interaction between the human system and environmental system: land allocation and emissions=== | ===Interaction between the human system and environmental system: land allocation and emissions=== | ||
There are several ways by which the human system directly influences the earth system. Land allocation and atmospheric emissions form two of the most important factors, others include water extraction, and water and soil pollution. The two main factors are described in IMAGE in separate sub-models. | There are several ways by which the human system directly influences the earth system. Land allocation and atmospheric emissions form two of the most important factors, others include water extraction, and water and soil pollution. The two main factors are described in IMAGE in separate sub-models. | ||
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''In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions. For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse: a decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase). In most developing country regions, however, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. The model can also be used to design scenarios that are consistent with different climate targets. For reaching the 2oC target, global [[GHG]] emissions would need to be reduced by around 50% in 2050.'' | ''In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions. For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse: a decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase). In most developing country regions, however, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. The model can also be used to design scenarios that are consistent with different climate targets. For reaching the 2oC target, global [[GHG]] emissions would need to be reduced by around 50% in 2050.'' | ||
[[File:013x img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Global geenhouse gas emissions and temperature changes|link=Changes in emissions under baseline (trend scenario) and 2ºC scenario (challenge pathways)]] | |||
===The earth system=== | ===The earth system=== | ||
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''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ||
{{FormulaTemplate|Figure5_IF}} | {{FormulaTemplate|Figure5_IF}} | ||
[[File:015g img13.png|thumb|500px|left|alt=Framework summary figure 5.|link=Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)]] | |||
====Human development==== | ====Human development==== | ||
Global environmental change impacts human development in many ways. Via the link to the [[GISMO model]], the IMAGE framework describes impacts on human health, and the achievement of human development goals such as the [[MDG|MDGs]]. The health model describes the burden of disease per gender and age ([[Human development]]). The GISMO model allows to describe health impacts from communicable diseases, but also from air pollution and undernourishment, and the interactions between these factors. The model is thus able to put the impacts of global environmental change factors in perspective of other factors determining human health. | Global environmental change impacts human development in many ways. Via the link to the [[GISMO model]], the IMAGE framework describes impacts on human health, and the achievement of human development goals such as the [[MDG|MDGs]]. The health model describes the burden of disease per gender and age ([[Human development]]). The GISMO model allows to describe health impacts from communicable diseases, but also from air pollution and undernourishment, and the interactions between these factors. The model is thus able to put the impacts of global environmental change factors in perspective of other factors determining human health. | ||
Revision as of 12:05, 12 December 2013
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