IMAGE framework summary/Description: Difference between revisions
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''The increases projected in agricultural , energy and industry production households lead to an increasing demand for water. At the same time, climate change also impacts the water cycle. While overall climate change is projected to lead to more precipitation, geographical patterns show changes to both dryer and wetter gridcells. As a result, the water balance improves in some regions, while it deteriorates in other regions. The pattern of these changes is very uncertain. In combination with increased demand, however, the number of people confronted with serious water stress is projected to increase significantly.'' | ''The increases projected in agricultural , energy and industry production households lead to an increasing demand for water. At the same time, climate change also impacts the water cycle. While overall climate change is projected to lead to more precipitation, geographical patterns show changes to both dryer and wetter gridcells. As a result, the water balance improves in some regions, while it deteriorates in other regions. The pattern of these changes is very uncertain. In combination with increased demand, however, the number of people confronted with serious water stress is projected to increase significantly.'' | ||
=== Impacts of environmental change=== | === Impacts of environmental change=== | ||
====Biodiversity loss==== | ====Biodiversity loss==== | ||
[[File:015g img13.png|thumb|400px|left|alt=Framework summary figure 5.|link=Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)|Biodiversity impacts (baseline and alternative scenarios)]] | |||
Biodiversity loss is described in the impact model [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO]] in the form of calculated changes in MSA (mean species abundance). The MSA indicator maps the effect of a suite of direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss provided by IMAGE. GLOBIO 3 takes into account the impacts of climate, land-use change, ecosystem fragmentation, expansion of infrastructure, disturbance of habitats, and acid and reactive nitrogen deposition ([[Terrestrial biodiversity]]). Their compound effect on biodiversity is computed using the GLOBIO3 model for terrestrial ecosystems. As the IMAGE and the GLOBIO3 models are spatially explicit, the impacts on MSA can be analysed by region, main biome and pressure factor. Recently, a similar model was developed to map biodiversity in fresh water; see [[Aquatic biodiversity]]. | Biodiversity loss is described in the impact model [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO]] in the form of calculated changes in MSA (mean species abundance). The MSA indicator maps the effect of a suite of direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss provided by IMAGE. GLOBIO 3 takes into account the impacts of climate, land-use change, ecosystem fragmentation, expansion of infrastructure, disturbance of habitats, and acid and reactive nitrogen deposition ([[Terrestrial biodiversity]]). Their compound effect on biodiversity is computed using the GLOBIO3 model for terrestrial ecosystems. As the IMAGE and the GLOBIO3 models are spatially explicit, the impacts on MSA can be analysed by region, main biome and pressure factor. Recently, a similar model was developed to map biodiversity in fresh water; see [[Aquatic biodiversity]]. | ||
''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ''For biodiversity, a further decline is projected in the Rio+20 baseline at an almost unchanged rate as in the past century. While historically, habitat loss has been the most important driver of biodiversity loss, in the future decades climate change, forestry and infrastructure expansion are projected to become the more important pressure factors.'' | ||
====Human development==== | ====Human development==== | ||
Revision as of 12:13, 12 December 2013
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