IMAGE framework summary/Earth system: Difference between revisions

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In IMAGE 3.0, the terrestrial carbon cycle and natural vegetation dynamics (Component Carbon cycle and natural vegetation) are modelled with [[LPJmL  model|LPJmL]]. This model is used to determine productivity at grid cell level for natural ecosystems and crops on the basis of plant and crop functional types. Key inputs to determine productivity include climate conditions, soil types and assumed technology/ management levels. The model iterates with the agricultural production components as it provides input on potential productivity, while land used for agriculture and forestry is a key input. Changes in land cover, land use and climate at grid cell level have consequences for the carbon cycle, and for crop and grass productivity.  
In IMAGE 3.0, the terrestrial carbon cycle and natural vegetation dynamics (Component Carbon cycle and natural vegetation) are modelled with [[LPJmL  model|LPJmL]]. This model is used to determine productivity at grid cell level for natural ecosystems and crops on the basis of plant and crop functional types. Key inputs to determine productivity include climate conditions, soil types and assumed technology/ management levels. The model iterates with the agricultural production components as it provides input on potential productivity, while land used for agriculture and forestry is a key input. Changes in land cover, land use and climate at grid cell level have consequences for the carbon cycle, and for crop and grass productivity.  
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Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (Figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system.
Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (the figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system.
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Calculated emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are used in IMAGE to derive changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and species involved in aerosol formation on a global scale (Component [[Atmospheric composition and climate]]). Climatic change is calculated as global mean temperature change using a slightly adapted version of the [[MAGICC model|MAGICC6.0]] climate model. Climatic change does not manifest uniformly over the globe. The patterns of temperature and precipitation are uncertain and differ between complex climate models. The changes in temperature and precipitation in each 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cell are derived from the global mean temperature using a pattern-scaling approach. The model accounts for feedback mechanisms related to changing climate, notably growth characteristics in the crop model, carbon dioxide concentrations (carbon fertilisation) and land cover ([[Land cover types|biome types]]).  
Calculated emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are used in IMAGE to derive changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and species involved in aerosol formation on a global scale (Component [[Atmospheric composition and climate]]). Climatic change is calculated as global mean temperature change using a slightly adapted version of the [[MAGICC model|MAGICC6.0]] climate model. Climatic change does not manifest uniformly over the globe. The patterns of temperature and precipitation are uncertain and differ between complex climate models. The changes in temperature and precipitation in each 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cell are derived from the global mean temperature using a pattern-scaling approach. The model accounts for feedback mechanisms related to changing climate, notably growth characteristics in the crop model, carbon dioxide concentrations (carbon fertilisation) and land cover ([[Land cover types|biome types]]).  
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Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (Figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C.  
Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (the figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C.  
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Revision as of 11:51, 24 June 2014

Parts of IMAGE framework summary

  1. Introduction page
  2. Introduction model description
  3. Drivers
  4. The Human system
  5. Interaction Human - Earth system
  6. Earth system
  7. Impacts
  8. Policy issues
  9. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  10. Overview of references
Projects/Applications
Relevant overviews
Key publications
References


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