IMAGE framework summary/Earth system: Difference between revisions
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|Reference=Müller et al., in preparation | |Reference=Müller et al., in preparation | ||
|Description=<h2>Carbon cycle and natural vegetation</h2> | |Description=<h2>Carbon cycle and natural vegetation</h2> | ||
In IMAGE 3.0, the terrestrial carbon cycle and natural vegetation dynamics (Component Natural vegetation and carbon cycle) are modelled with [[LPJmL|LPJmL | In IMAGE 3.0, the terrestrial carbon cycle and natural vegetation dynamics (Component Natural vegetation and carbon cycle) are modelled with [[LPJmL model|LPJmL]]. This model is used to determine productivity at grid cell level for natural ecosystems and crops on the basis of plant and crop functional types. Key inputs to determine productivity include climate conditions, soil types and assumed technology/ management levels. The model iterates with the agricultural production components as it provides input on potential productivity, while land used for agriculture and forestry is a key input. Changes in land cover, land use and climate at grid cell level have consequences for the carbon cycle, and for crop and grass productivity. | ||
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Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (Figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system. | Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (Figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system. | ||
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Revision as of 11:15, 12 May 2014
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