IMAGE framework summary/Earth system: Difference between revisions
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Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (the figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system. | Example: Food consumption trends lead to net expansion of agricultural land, and thus to net loss of forest (mainly tropical forests). This results in net deforestation emissions as a result of human activities. After 2050, most IMAGE scenarios expect the net anthropogenic emissions from land-use change to decline further and to result in a small net uptake (as a result of demographic trends leading to a decline in land-use for food production). However, the terrestrial vegetation as a whole, which has been a large sink during the last decades, could become a CO2 source as a result of climate change (the figure below). This could lead to a rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, given continued emissions from the energy system. | ||
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure | {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure Carbon cycle and natural vegetation}} | ||
===Water=== | ===Water=== | ||
The LPJmL model used for vegetation and carbon cycle also includes a global hydrology model (Component Water). With this linked hydrology model, IMAGE scenarios capture future changes in irrigated areas, water availability, agricultural water demand and water stress. | The LPJmL model used for vegetation and carbon cycle also includes a global hydrology model (Component Water). With this linked hydrology model, IMAGE scenarios capture future changes in irrigated areas, water availability, agricultural water demand and water stress. | ||
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Example: Projected increases in agriculture, energy and industry production, and population lead to increased water demand. Climate change also impacts the water cycle. While overall climate change is projected to lead to more precipitation, geographical patterns show changes to drier and to wetter local climates. In addition, increasing temperature leads to more evapotranspiration. As a result, the water balance improves in some regions and deteriorates in other regions, and the pattern of these changes is very uncertain. In combination with increased demand, the areas confronted with crop production losses are projected to increase significantly as shown in the figure below for a similar scenario. | Example: Projected increases in agriculture, energy and industry production, and population lead to increased water demand. Climate change also impacts the water cycle. While overall climate change is projected to lead to more precipitation, geographical patterns show changes to drier and to wetter local climates. In addition, increasing temperature leads to more evapotranspiration. As a result, the water balance improves in some regions and deteriorates in other regions, and the pattern of these changes is very uncertain. In combination with increased demand, the areas confronted with crop production losses are projected to increase significantly as shown in the figure below for a similar scenario. | ||
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure | {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure Water II}} | ||
===Nutrients=== | ===Nutrients=== | ||
The Global Nutrient model describes the fate of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emerging from concentrated point sources, such as human settlements, and from dispersed or non-point sources, such as agricultural and natural land (Component [[Nutrients]]). The nutrient surplus eventually enters coastal water bodies via rivers and lakes. Key drivers that determine nutrient emissions include agricultural production with fertiliser application, and urban and rural populations, and their sanitation systems and level of wastewater treatment. For example, the model calculates the soil nitrogen balance from the total set of inputs and outputs. Inputs include biological nitrogen fixation, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and application of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser and animal manure. Outputs include nitrogen removal from the field by crop harvesting, grass-cutting and grazing. The nutrient outflow from the soil combined with emissions from point sources and direct atmospheric deposition determine the loading of nutrients to surface water. | The Global Nutrient model describes the fate of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emerging from concentrated point sources, such as human settlements, and from dispersed or non-point sources, such as agricultural and natural land (Component [[Nutrients]]). The nutrient surplus eventually enters coastal water bodies via rivers and lakes. Key drivers that determine nutrient emissions include agricultural production with fertiliser application, and urban and rural populations, and their sanitation systems and level of wastewater treatment. For example, the model calculates the soil nitrogen balance from the total set of inputs and outputs. Inputs include biological nitrogen fixation, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and application of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser and animal manure. Outputs include nitrogen removal from the field by crop harvesting, grass-cutting and grazing. The nutrient outflow from the soil combined with emissions from point sources and direct atmospheric deposition determine the loading of nutrients to surface water. | ||
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Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (the figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C. | Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by about 60% in the 2010-2050 period. As a result, global temperature is expected to increase by around 4 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 without climate policy, and most likely exceeding 2 °C before 2050 (the figure below). Rapid emission reductions, however, could limit temperature increase, most likely, to less than 2 °C. | ||
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure4 | {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure4 IMAGE framework summary}} | ||
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Revision as of 14:35, 30 June 2014
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