IMAGE framework summary/Human system: Difference between revisions
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Example: The model can be used to make detailed projections of the energy system, with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 study, the baseline scenario without climate policy projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected to remain below the price of alternative fuels for most applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to an increased share of alternative technologies and resources, such as carbon capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables (Figure | Example: The model can be used to make detailed projections of the energy system, with and without climate policy. In the Rio+20 study, the baseline scenario without climate policy projects a 65% increase in energy consumption in the 2010-2050 period, driven by continued population and economic growth. With no fundamental change in current policies, fossil fuels are expected to retain a large market share as their market price is expected to remain below the price of alternative fuels for most applications. In climate policy scenarios, the inclusion of a carbon price leads to an increased share of alternative technologies and resources, such as carbon capture and storage, nuclear power and renewables (Figure below). | ||
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===Food consumption and agriculture=== | ===Food consumption and agriculture=== | ||
Demand for and production of agricultural products are modelled by the soft-linked agro-economic models [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] or alternatively [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]] (Component [[Agricultural economy and forestry]]). The IMAGE crop and land-use models supply information to MAGNET on land supply by region and changes in potential yields. MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. MAGNET assesses production of agricultural products based on combinations of primary (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about livestock production in different systems (Component [[Livestock]]). A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields and livestock efficiencies, taking into account changes in technology and biophysical conditions. An increase in demand for agricultural production can be met by land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use and increasing yields. IMAGE 3.0 also calculates timber demand and forest management (Component [[Forest management]]). | Demand for and production of agricultural products are modelled by the soft-linked agro-economic models [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] or alternatively [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]] (Component [[Agricultural economy and forestry]]). The IMAGE crop and land-use models supply information to MAGNET on land supply by region and changes in potential yields. MAGNET provides information on future agricultural production levels and intensity by region, matching regional demands through trade. MAGNET assesses production of agricultural products based on combinations of primary (land, labour, capital and natural resources) and intermediate production factors. For the livestock sector, IMAGE makes scenario-specific assumptions about livestock production in different systems (Component [[Livestock]]). A key purpose of the agro-economy model is to determine regional production levels and the associated yields and livestock efficiencies, taking into account changes in technology and biophysical conditions. An increase in demand for agricultural production can be met by land expansion (using the regional land supply curves) and/or intensification of land use and increasing yields. IMAGE 3.0 also calculates timber demand and forest management (Component [[Forest management]]). | ||
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Example: Almost all IMAGE baseline scenarios, including the Rio+20 baseline, project an increase in agricultural production driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns associated with increasing per capita income (Figure | Example: Almost all IMAGE baseline scenarios, including the Rio+20 baseline, project an increase in agricultural production driven by population growth and changes in dietary patterns associated with increasing per capita income (Figure below). Consistent with historical trends, most of the increase is met by higher production per hectare (intensification). In the Rio+20 baseline, slow expansion of the agricultural area in developing countries can be observed, mainly for crops and to a lesser extent for pasture (Figure below). Alternative scenarios explore ways to mitigate agricultural expansion, including the influence of enhanced yield increase, dietary changes, and reduction in post-harvest losses. | ||
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Revision as of 19:39, 9 May 2014
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