IMAGE framework summary/Interaction: Difference between revisions
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Example: In most baseline scenarios, increased agricultural production in tropical regions leads to loss of natural ecosystems and associated biodiversity loss. Most expansion is projected to occur in highly productive ecosystems close to agricultural areas, including tropical forests and woodland, and other high nature value savannah and grassland areas. The agricultural area is contracting in temperate zones and the grid cells least suitable for production potential are abandoned. The resulting changes in land use are depicted in the figure below. | Example: In most baseline scenarios, increased agricultural production in tropical regions leads to loss of natural ecosystems and associated biodiversity loss. Most expansion is projected to occur in highly productive ecosystems close to agricultural areas, including tropical forests and woodland, and other high nature value savannah and grassland areas. The agricultural area is contracting in temperate zones and the grid cells least suitable for production potential are abandoned. The resulting changes in land use are depicted in the figure below. | ||
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure | {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Baseline figure Land-use allocation}} | ||
===Emissions=== | ===Emissions=== | ||
In IMAGE, emissions are described as a function of activity levels in the energy system, in industry, in agriculture and land-cover and land-use change, and they are also influenced by assumed abatement actions (Component [[Emissions]]). The model describes emissions of major greenhouse gases, and many air pollutants, calibrated to current international emission inventories. In some cases, the emission calculation uses detailed process representation on a grid (e.g., emissions from cultivated land and land-cover change) but in most cases, exogenous emission factors are used. Change in emission factors over time is estimated according to the storyline, sometimes assuming constant emission factors, but often assuming emission factors decrease over time along with economic development (consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve). Abatement of greenhouse gas emissions reflects estimates per region, sector and gas often optimised in the FAIR model (Component [[Climate policy]]). | In IMAGE, emissions are described as a function of activity levels in the energy system, in industry, in agriculture and land-cover and land-use change, and they are also influenced by assumed abatement actions (Component [[Emissions]]). The model describes emissions of major greenhouse gases, and many air pollutants, calibrated to current international emission inventories. In some cases, the emission calculation uses detailed process representation on a grid (e.g., emissions from cultivated land and land-cover change) but in most cases, exogenous emission factors are used. Change in emission factors over time is estimated according to the storyline, sometimes assuming constant emission factors, but often assuming emission factors decrease over time along with economic development (consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve). Abatement of greenhouse gas emissions reflects estimates per region, sector and gas often optimised in the FAIR model (Component [[Climate policy]]). | ||
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Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions (the figure below). For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse. A decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase. However, in most developing country regions, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. In the policy scenarios, the target to keep global mean temperature change below 2 °C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by about 50% in 2050. This is achieved in the model by structural changes in the energy system and by changes in emission and abatement factors. | Example: In the Rio+20 baseline, increasing energy and agricultural production levels lead to an increase of associated greenhouse gas emissions (the figure below). For air pollutants, the emission trends are more diverse. A decrease is projected in high-income countries, as emission factors drop faster than activity levels increase. However, in most developing country regions, increasing energy production is projected to be associated with more air pollution. In the policy scenarios, the target to keep global mean temperature change below 2 °C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by about 50% in 2050. This is achieved in the model by structural changes in the energy system and by changes in emission and abatement factors. | ||
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{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure4 | {{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Figure4 IMAGE framework summary}} | ||
[[Downscaling tool|Downscaling]] is used as a tool to link different geographical scales | [[Downscaling tool|Downscaling]] is used as a tool to link different geographical scales | ||
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Revision as of 14:34, 30 June 2014
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